Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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162 FXUS64 KEWX 101703 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1203 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front is located just south of the CWA with northeasterly wind across South Central Texas. Low clouds have begun to develop across the area with stratus expected over all of the area by sunrise. This will keep low temperatures elevated in the mid 60s to the north to the mid and upper 70s in the south. Today will be cooler with highs in the 80s to low 90s, anywhere from about 6 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday depending on the location. This front will slow but continue south during the day today. Some elevated storms will be possible along and north of the boundary mainly across the western half of the area today. The most likely scenario is storms forming near the boundary across the higher terrain in Mexico and over west Texas, possibly moving into the area later in the afternoon or evening. Elevated instability may be enough to generate an isolated severe threat if there are storms with hail and strong wind the main threats. SPC continues the level 1 of 5 risk for this potential mainly for areas west of San Antonio. Precipitation chances continue into Saturday as an weak disturbance rounds the base of the upper low located near the Four Corners region. Isentropic lift may generate some showers in the west Saturday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the day, with the best chances for precipitation mainly confined in the western half of the area. Better forcing does look to be a bit north of the area, so shower and storm development may just graze the northern portion of the area in the afternoon. Chances for severe weather with any activity is low this day. Highs will be slightly "cooler" mainly in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 148 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A positively tilted 500mb trough will swing through the Texas Panhandle late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, and in conjunction with a 100kt 300mb jet streak over central Texas, south central Texas should be placed within the right entrance region of this jet. Large scale lift along with continued easterly surface flow should lead to widespread showers and storms Saturday night through a good chunk of the day Sunday. Mother`s Day is looking wet for south central Texas, so if you have any outdoor plans, plan accordingly with either an umbrella or a rain coat as you make your way out. Instability should be quite low, so we are not concerned with severe weather this weekend. Much cooler temperatures will be the other story, with highs about 5-15 degrees below normal on Sunday. Most locations will be in the 70s and 80s with the exception being the extreme southwestern portion of the area where some spots could touch the lower 90s. Widespread beneficial rainfall appears increasingly likely for the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau where many locations have missed out on rainfall recently. We should see a bit of a lull Monday morning before another round of showers and storms develop beneath a shortwave sliding through the backside of the longwave troughing to our north. Tuesday looks like the driest day of the week with increasing humidity and temperatures. Highs should range from the upper 80s east and north to the mid to upper 90s west and south. Our next shot at showers and storms arrives late Wednesday as a shortwave trough swings through west Texas. The threat for strong to severe storms appears possible with this system given sufficient instability and deep layer shear. For now, we will hope for additional rainfall, as Summer isn`t too far around the corner and the rain machine will start to shut down sooner rather than later. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions are returning to the area this morning with some clouds still hanging on. Northeast winds are prevailing across the area with speeds generally less than 15 knots. VFR will likely prevail through the remainder of the period. There is a small chance for a thunderstorm near DRT and will include VCTS there this evening. Otherwise, no major impacts are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 66 82 67 81 / 10 10 30 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 83 65 81 / 10 10 30 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 84 67 85 / 10 10 40 60 Burnet Muni Airport 64 77 65 78 / 10 20 40 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 85 72 92 / 30 40 60 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 80 65 79 / 10 20 30 80 Hondo Muni Airport 68 83 67 87 / 10 20 50 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 83 65 83 / 10 10 30 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 83 68 84 / 0 10 20 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 83 68 86 / 10 20 40 50 Stinson Muni Airport 70 84 70 86 / 10 20 40 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...29