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000
FXUS62 KFFC 201242
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
842 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024



.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Anafrontal area of precipitation across southern TN is approaching
the northern GA state line. Think most of this precip should
remain well north of the CWA, but a few isolated/scattered shra
possible right along the state line early this morning. Have
updated the pops to reflect current radar trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Key Messages:

 - Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms possible this
   afternoon near and S of a Columbus to Macon line.

 - Cooler temperatures will gradually filter S into the area through
   the weekend.

Near zonal upper flow is presently over the area. As a result, a
very weak surface front is making very slow southward progress
across the state. Shower and thunderstorm activity has dissipated,
leaving multi-layered cloudiness across much of the forecast area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop S of
the frontal boundary by afternoon due to less cloud cover over that
area coupled with MUCAPE values of over 1500 J/kg. Effective shear
levels in that area are fairly low, but they are forecast to
increase a bit through the day as W mid and upper level wind
increase. Strongest storms will be capable of producing gusty winds
and hail (a few possibly approaching severe limits). Elsewhere,
conditions will remain mostly dry, as there will be very little
dynamic or thermodynamic support for precipitation.

A shortwave will approach the area from the W tonight, with an
associated frontal wave moving E along the old frontal surface. As a
result, isentropic lift will increase across the area. This will
lead to mostly stratiform rain spreading across the area late
tonight and on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, with
the best chances near the frontal surface over the S portion of the
area. A short-lived thunderstorm or two will also be possible
embedded within the stratiform rain area in locations where
isentropic lift is the strongest.

Cooler temperatures will gradually filter into the area from the N
behind the cold front. High temperatures today will range from the
mid to upper 60s across the N mountains to the upper 80s SE of
Macon. Low temperatures tonight will range from near 40 in some of
the NE mountains to near 60s in the extreme SE portion of the
forecast area. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to span from
near 50 in the NE to the lower to mid 70s in the extreme SE. These
temperatures will be about 15 degrees below normal across most of
the area (closer to 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the SE).

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Highlights:

-Cooler and drier conditions return to the state early next week
 followed by gradual warming through the week.

-The next opportunity for rain looks to hold off until next
 weekend.

Rain will gradually come to an end at the start of the long term
period (Sunday night) as a shortwave trough sweeps across the Mid-
South/TN Valley region acting to push a cold front through the
forecast area. This will be followed by a period of drier and cooler
conditions as weak ridging sets up in the mid-levels and surface
high pressure becomes situated across much of the southeast and up
the east coast. A closed low is set to develop across south-central
Canada and translate east across the Great Lakes Region to the
northeast states around mid-week. At this time doesn`t look like
much in the way of precip will come of this feature as any upper
level support and sufficient moisture remains well to our north. The
most we may see is some mid to high level clouds across North GA
midweek. Following this feature, we return to northwest flow aloft
with dry conditions continuing through late week as upper ridging
becomes more amplified. Long term guidance indicates another closed
low forming east of the Rockies and ejecting east across the Central
Plains towards the end of next week. Too early to hash out any
specifics as there remain too many inconsistencies among models.
Though rain chances may sneak back into the forecast at some point
next weekend.

Cooler temperatures will kick off the long term period and will be
followed by warming trend on Wednesday. In the wake of the cold
frontal passage, forecast temperatures Monday morning will range
from the 40s (upper 30s in the NE GA mtns) to low 50s and by the
afternoon warm into the 60s. Similar low temperatures are expected
on Monday night/Tuesday morning with widespread 40s. Tuesday through
the remainder of the period temperatures are forecast to warm to the
70s (and low 80s across south-central GA) during the afternoon and
cool to the 40s/50s overnight.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Mostly VFR conditions continue, although a few sites NW of the
Atlanta metro area have been reporting cigs below 500 ft over the
past several hours. Shower and tstm activity this afternoon
should affect mainly CSG and MCN. Hi res models are producing a
bit more shower activity farther to the N, but still away from the
other terminals. An approaching shortwave and associated frontal
wave will produce increasing isentropic lift and mostly stratiform
rain after midnight tonight. There may be a few embedded, short-
lived tstms in this area of rain, with the best chances farther S.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium with low clouds early this morning and rain start time
tonight. High for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          51  58  46  65 /  20 100  20  10
Atlanta         51  58  46  65 /  30 100  10  10
Blairsville     43  56  37  62 /  10 100  10   0
Cartersville    45  58  40  66 /  50 100  10   0
Columbus        55  62  48  69 /  40  70  10   0
Gainesville     51  58  45  64 /  10 100  10  10
Macon           56  64  50  67 /  30  80  20  10
Rome            47  60  42  67 /  60 100   0   0
Peachtree City  49  59  44  66 /  40 100  10  10
Vidalia         64  74  52  66 /  30  70  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SEC