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000
FXUS62 KFFC 091342
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
942 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024



.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Widespread area of precip will continue to lift northward today. A
break in the precip is possible during the late morning and early
afternoon, but another round of sct activity is possible this
afternoon. Instability remains very low and will not mention
thunder at this time. Have tweaked pops, but otherwise no major
changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Key Messages:

 - Areas of rain will continue today, especially in northern Georgia.

 - Wednesday will be the "calm before the storm" as we await a
   strong trough that will bring thunderstorms and rainfall
   Wednesday night.

Today:

The rainfall currently over central Alabama and Georgia should lift
northward this morning as the shortwave and band of mid level
frontogensis causing it moves north. A second weaker shortwave
arriving in the region this afternoon may allow precipitation to
linger in norther Georgia into this evening. For points south of
Interstate 20, once the rain ends this morning drier weather is
anticipate for the rest of the day. This pattern of rain lingering
in the north and drier conditions in the south should produce a
bifurcated temperature distribution this afternoon. Afternoon highs
in central Georgia should reach the low 80s, while temperatures in
the mountains will be limited to the upper 60s. For Atlanta a high
in the low 70s is likely.

Tonight & Wednesday:

During this period we will be watching and waiting as a strong
trough exits the Southern Plains and makes its way through the
Southeast. The primary impacts from this trough in Georgia should
hold off until Wednesday evening. Ahead of the trough low level WAA
should increase in Georgia. This will manifest as southerly winds
and lead to increasing moisture in the lowest 5000 ft of the
atmosphere. Due to these factors conditions should be favorable for
upslope flow and light orographic precipitation in the mountains of
north Georgia late tonight and Monday morning. Temperatures will
also be on the rise in northern Georgia, where afternoon highs will
be 6 to 12 degrees warmer on Wednesday compared to today.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

At a glance:

 - A messy system will bring heavy rain and strong winds to the
   area on Thursday. A few storms could become strong or severe
   across south and central Georgia.

 - Temps fall for a day after the front on Thursday and quickly
   rebound into the weekend and early next week.

The long term picks up as the front approaches and the weather goes
from beautiful to...well, not so much. There is still a lot of
uncertainty in this system, but as we get closer to the event we are
seeing less and less evidence of any meteorological triggers that
might indicate widespread severe weather. The main concern will be
any kind of QLCS that propagates out of Alabama. SBCAPE is less than
500 J/KG across the state. Timing is less than ideal for storm
formation as well. Bulk shear values are set to max out overnight
when SBCAPE values are at it`s minimum. As the day heats up, rain
across the SE part of the CWA will keep instability in check. The
best dynamics seem to be south and east of our border although a few
strong to severe storms are possible in far SE Georgia where SPC has
gone with a slight risk.

Non thunderstorm winds have also continued to come into the long
term forecast hot. While it`s unlikely we`ll mix high enough into
the jet for the worse case scenario we are seeing wind gusts on
Thursday ranging from 30-40mph across most of the CWA. Winds will
likely be strongest across northern GA given the proximity to the
jet axis as the upper level low passes through the TN river valley.
Given the consistency of this part of the forecast, it`s pretty safe
to say that some kind of wind product will be needed on Thursday.

Flash Flooding continues to be a concern across central Georgia.
Some areas could see up to 4 inches of rain, but there is a lot of
uncertainty in where the bullseye will end up.

After the front moves out, cooler dry air on the backside will
settle in but should erode quickly as winds become more westerly as
we approach the weekend. Temps will climb quickly this weekend and
we`ll be back in the 80s by the early part of next week!
Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024

The latest trends in the forecast suggest increased rain shower
activity as far south as Macon through 06Z Wednesday. Anywhere
rain showers occur through 06Z Wednesday MVFR conditions (ceilings
1500-3000 ft AGL and visibility restriction of 4-6 SM) may occur.
After 06Z Wednesday a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions (ceiling
600-2500 ft AGL) may move into northern Georgia, possibly
impacting the Atlanta and Athens area TAF sites. A mix of east and
southeast winds (090-160 degrees) at 3 to 9 kt is expected
through 18Z Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate.
Moderate confidence in the visibility and wind outlooks.
Low confidence in the ceiling and precipitation forecasts.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  78  62  76 /  30  20  90  90
Atlanta         59  77  62  73 /  30  40 100  70
Blairsville     54  71  57  67 /  30  30 100  90
Cartersville    58  78  60  73 /  30  50 100  70
Columbus        63  81  65  75 /  10  60 100  50
Gainesville     58  76  62  73 /  30  20  90  90
Macon           61  81  64  77 /  10  10  90  80
Rome            56  78  61  71 /  30  60 100  70
Peachtree City  60  79  62  74 /  30  40 100  60
Vidalia         63  82  66  79 /  10  10  60 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Albright