Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 311539 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1039 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR TODAY WITH A FEW
UNCERTAINTIES. FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING WYOMING AT
THIS TIME. SFC COLD FRONT IT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE EASTERN
CWA AND IS ALMOST AT THE SD/MN BORDER. AREA OF RAIN MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS. FIRST
OFF...SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AND LATEST
DAY ONE SEVERE OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED EAST. FRONTAL PASSAGE SPEED
LIKELY PUTS BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH IOWA AND
INTO NEBRASKA. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...STILL EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EAST INTO THE EVENING.
MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS...AND HRRR ACTUALLY HAVING A GOOD
REPRESENTATION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MAY BE LATCHING ONTO
SOMETHING FOR LATER TODAY. BASICALLY...IT WOULD APPEAR MUCH OF THE
CWA IS QUIET TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST. BUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
HERE. NEED TO WATCH AREA OF RAIN MOVING TOWARDS PIERRE TO SEE IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER OR EXPANDS. CONCERNING TODAYS TEMPS...ANOTHER
GREY AREA AS ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO DEALING WITH A STRATUS
DECK OVER THE NORTHERN CWA IN WHICH ITS RESIDENT TIME OVER THE
AREA IS QUESTIONABLE. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS LIKELY
NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY

WARM ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET LINE OF STORMS PUSHING RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED BACK TOWARDS THE MO
RIVER...AND THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS POSITIONED BACK IN WY. WHILE
THE SURFACE LOW/TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FAR EASTERN
CWA...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE REST OF THE CWA WILL
REMAIN CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE. LOSS TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL REMOVE
THE THREAT OF STORMS...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS OVERHEAD. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN MONDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMER READINGS UNDER A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY
ALONG WITH A COOL DOWN. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
THEN TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COOL FRONT SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THUS...WARMER AIR AND SUNSHINE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WILL BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA/COOL FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR FRIDAY CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE IN A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY EARLY WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND COOL FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AND INCREASE THIS
MORNING BEHIND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
SD. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD IN VFR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INSERTED SOME VICINITY
SHOWERS IN FOR ALL LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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