Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240526
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1126 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST PLANNED ATTM. EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTS TO HAVE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE.
SAT PIX DO SHOW A SLOW CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST PART OF
SD...NUDGING INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY. HAVE SOME CONCERNS HOW FAR
THIS CLEARING LINE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KABR AND KATY SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUD
CONDS WILL LINGER FOR A BIT LONGER. BASED ON PERSISTANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH LAST SIMILAR SITUATION...HAVE OPTED TO BOLSTER CLOUD
GRIDS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MORE CLOUDS...ESPCIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST. INHERITED TEMPS LOOK TO BE OK WITH ONLY HOURLY TWEAKS
NECESSARY.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO WIND DOWN OVER THE REGION AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL EAST OF THE REGION, THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA HAS NOW
BEEN CANCELLED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHES EAST ELONGATING FROM
WISCONSIN TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE CWA BEGINNING IN
THE WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM BEING
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE...A GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
ALL THAT IS EXPECTED DURING THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

MILD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.





.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY KICKING OUT AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A
DECENT FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF NOW THIS SYSTEM ONLY LOOKS TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CWA. AS SNOW TAPERS OFF FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE...SO
DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIGHT NOW...THE ONLY OTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ARCTIC AIR
DOES LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL. IN
FACT THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IS ALREADY SPITTING OUT SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW AND TEENS BELOW ZERO BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOOK FOR LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z WEDNESDAY. KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO VFR CATEGORY BY 13Z WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. KABR/KATY WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN LOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SCT MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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