Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 012048
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THERE WILL TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST BY THIS EVENING HEADING EAST INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A STRONG LLJ...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DECENT SHEAR...EXPECT THE MODELS TO BE
ACCURATE AND INCREASED CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STILL HAVE MOISTURE AND
GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KNOTS
ALONG WITH CAPES UP TO 3000 J/KG. DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
THE SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE/FRONTAL ZONE SETS UP. WITH ALL OF THE
FACTORS IN PLACE...EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. SHAVED
OFF POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY AND MAY BE ABLE TO CUT
THEM BACK MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PAINS STATES...AND PLENTY OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS PATTERN. THE
LOW THEN CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RETURNS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY INITIALLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY NORTHERLY WINDS INFLUENCE THE AREA. HOWEVER...A TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPS THE
FORECAST LOADED WITH CHANCE POPS. PERHAPS A BREAK IN THE ACTION
LATER FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT. IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...REACHING THE KPIR/KMBG AREA IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
TIME FRAME...AND THE KABR/KATY REGION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.