Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 301523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS..LOWERING POPS EAST OF THE JAMES AND RAISING THEM BETWEEN
THE MISSOURI AND THE JAMES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE DAY..SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE GENERAL PATTERN OVER THE SHORT TERM IS DEFINED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES THAT HAVE SUPPRESSED THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER MINOR VARIATIONS BETWEEN DETERMINIST MODELS
IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL FEATURES HAVE RESULTED IN LESS CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND THUS A BROADBRUSHING OF POPS.

MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSH AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AM ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK/ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEPICTED AMONG HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. PROFILES SUPPORT
ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTION HOWEVER AS NORTHEAST FLOW HAS LENT TO A
COOLER/DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. MORE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS REMNANTS FROM STRONG AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS PUSH IN AFTER DARK. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...SO ANYTHING MAKING
IT THIS FAR SOUTH/EAST WILL BE RATHER WEAK.

ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION BAND OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY...AND PROFILES MAY WARM/MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF A STRONGER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HEADING INTO WHAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY/QUIET WEATHER
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY DURING THE DAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUCKLES AND SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL TROFFING/HEIGHT
FALLS SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS/SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY GOOD WARMING SETTING UP INTO /4TH OF
JULY/ SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS LIKELY
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE GFS/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL
LEND SOME SUPPORT TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ON
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO WESTERN CONUS RIDGING ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF THERMAL PROGS
SHOW SOME NOTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

BASED OFF CURRENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROGS...IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT`S JUST
A MATTER OF NAILING DOWN THE TIMING/LOCATION DETAILS RIGHT NOW.
ACTIVITY COULD BE BOTTLED UP ACROSS NODAK...OR END UP NOT GETTING
GOING UNTIL THE FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE SODAK/MN
BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL PLENTY OF QUESTION MARKS WITH
THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THE MODELS
EVOLVE THINGS THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED SOME OVER THE PAST
3 OR 4 HOURS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PICK BACK UP
AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING
GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO
BE ABLE TO CREATE BRIEF/TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS. MVFR VISBIES
FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN


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