Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 181726 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. WITH THE GOOD MIXING TEMPS HAVE JUMPED QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES
MODELS AND THE CONSISTENT TRENDS IN THE ECMWF OPTED TO REALLY CUT
BACK ON POPS TONIGHT...KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONFINED TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE PLUS OTHER HI-RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 18Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER 0Z DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE JAMES AND
MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY PROMOTE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LEE SIDE
OF THE SISSETON HILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS EVENING
WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AS IT CROSSES THIS CWA TONIGHT. WITH
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXCEPT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAK
FORCING WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
STILL HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS.

WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINING AOA CLIMO ON SATURDAY AND
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT PERHAPS SLOW UP A BIT AND AMPLIFY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE THE WEST COAST ABOUT TUESDAY AND THEN
EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
EJECTION PROCESS/EVOLUTION/SPEED IS A BIT DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS SO FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE UP FOR GRABS. HOWEVER...ALL
MODELS POINT TOWARD DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THAT SAID
MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE SO AT THIS POINT SVR
WEATHER CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
OUT NEAR TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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