Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261737 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1237 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 1030 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

No major changes planned to the today period forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 641 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 351 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Upper level low pressure across the Dakotas and MT/WY will be the
focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development later this
afternoon. CAM solutions suggest activity will begin across the
western/central Dakotas where steeper lapse rates exist closer to
the upper low center. Not expecting any severe weather today though
as instability is lacking with MLCAPE values less than 1000 J/KG.
Activity will try to push eastward towards the James Valley by this
evening.

Overnight and through the day Friday, frontal boundary establishes
itself over the area, but there are some discrepancies amongst the
models in just where this sets up. Models vary in position from
eastern SD to western MN. A wave of low pressure eventually rides
northward along this frontal boundary on Friday, bringing a good
chance for rainfall. So, where this boundary actually sets up will
be important in determining where best precip chances are.

Shortwave energy will move northeast over the area Friday night into
Saturday, which will keep the precip chances rolling right into the
start of the weekend. Overall, severe weather does not appear to be
a concern during the short term period as best severe parameters are
more south of the area into the Central Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

The long term models show a short wave trough leaving the region on
Saturday night bringing an end to the showers/storms. Expect Sunday
to be mostly dry at this time along with Sunday night also most
likely being dry. Then the models show an upper level low pressure
trough in southwest Canada dropping southeast and into our region,
intensifying and closing off from early to mid week. All of the
models show different solutions on the location, strength, and
timing of this upper low pressure area. Nevertheless...either
solution will give us chances of showers/storms from Monday on
through Wednesday. Temperatures will be warmer early on mainly in
the upper 70s to the lower 80s cooling some into the low to mid 70s
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Vfr conditions are expected for all locations this afternoon
through tonight. However, by the middle of the day on Friday,
sub-vfr cloudiness may be developing/working into the region from
the south. Also, this afternoon through late this evening showers
and thunderstorms may develop across portions of central and
northeast South Dakota in association with an area of low pressure
moving into western North Dakota. Some of these may affect the taf
locations. Then later tonight, a different area of low pressure
will begin to move toward the region from the south, increasing
chances for scattered off and on showers and thunderstorms from
late tonight through the day Friday.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Dorn



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