Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 300940
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
340 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Wrap around moisture will remain with us for the next few days
despite low pressure slowly filling and lifting to the northeast.
Profiles suggest P-Type will continue to be snow today, however a
quick trip outside indicates a mix of light snow and sprinkles.
Thats in line with Bufkit profile trends of slowly drying out the
dendritic growth zone, with a rather thick saturation layer below
8kft. Thankfully not much lift in that layer, and ceilings are
between 1 and 3kft - so any additional precipitation will be light
and some evaporation can be expected before moisture reaches the
surface. Continued to mention Snow or Freezing Rain for portions of
the Coteau tonight, however again intensity will be too low and it
appears ground temperatures too warm for it to be a
significant problem, though will have to monitor.

With clouds stuck in place and limited thermal advection -
temperatures will see minimal movement with highs in the 30s and
lows in the 20s/teens.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Will see a fairly progressive upper level pattern during the
extended period, with a shortwave trough tracking across the region
Friday night through Sunday, followed by weak ridging Sunday night
and Monday before another trough moves through Monday night and
Tuesday.

At the surface, high pressure will be over the area when the period
begins, then gets pushed east by an approaching trough. This trough
looks to move through mostly dry on Saturday, followed by weak
ridging on Sunday before a stronger low pressure system approaches
early next week. The models differ on the track of this system, with
the GFS taking it across North Dakota and the ECMWF and GEM taking
it a bit further south across South Dakota. Therefore, will stick
fairly close to the Superblend which keeps slight chance pops
across much of the CWA Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures will be around or slightly above normal Saturday
through Monday, with highs in the 30s. Will then see the beginnings
of a cold spell arrive on Tuesday, with highs in the mid teens to
mid 20s. Overnight lows in the upper teens and 20s Friday night
through Sunday night will give way to the cooler air, with lows
mainly in the teens Monday night and in the single digits Tuesday
night.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A mix of mvfr/ifr cigs and vsbys are expected through the night
and into early Wednesday. Vsbys are expected to be lowest at
KPIR/KMBG as more light snow transitions south out of North
Dakota. The snow should gradually dissipate from west to east on
Wednesday.  The wind will gradually dissipate through Wednesday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     SDZ003-015-033-045-048.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...TDK



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