Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 312314 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
614 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND HOT WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. MODELS FOR THE MOST PART
ARE KEEPING THIS CWA DRY BECAUSE OF VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND NOT MUCH FORCING ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
LIKE THE ECMWF THAT HAVE THE SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND
THEREFORE SHOW INCREASED FRONTAL FORCING CREEPING INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SD. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH SINCE THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. DECIDED TO KEEP ANY POP
MENTION SOUTH OF PIERRE BUT DID PUSH IT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN BIG
STONE COUNTY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE
TO FIRE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS..CAPE ABOVE 2500 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES
AROUND 9. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING EXACTLY WHERE
ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SET UP SO THIS COULD BE A
PLAYER IF ENERGY BECOMES AVAILABLE FARTHER NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FEATURE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES. THINGS GET A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE EXTENDED IN REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW
EPISODES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION...BUT DIFFERENCES
STILL NOTED IN TIMING AND LOCATION. GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND
POPS WITH MINIMAL CHANGES SINCE THEY ONLY HIGHLIGHT 20/30 TYPE
CHANCES ANYWAY. SOME QUESTION TO TEMPS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL. EARLIER MODEL RUNS...AS WELL AS THE 12Z GFS HAD SHOWED FAIRLY
COOL AIR SWEEPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IN CONTRAST
THOUGH...THE 12Z EC IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER BY FRIDAY SO WILL HAVE
TO WAIT TO SEE IF OTHER MODELS LATCH ONTO THE WARMER EC TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
FEW STORMS MAY SLIDE OFF THE BLACK HILLS AND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TNT...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THESE IN THE KPIR TAF. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF ACCAS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THAT BEING ABOVE 10K
FEET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK


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