Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 182112
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
312 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

A weak ridge of high pressure will move across the area overnight,
bringing mostly clear skies and dry conditions. Winds will become
fairly light overnight as well, especially in valley areas. Even
though we will have weak warm air advection overnight, the light
winds and clear skies will allow temps to fall, especially for
eastern areas where readings will be in the teens.

Raised highs a couple degrees on Sunday based on latest guidance,
925mb thermal progs, and decent west to southwest mixing winds.
Generally sided towards the warmer end of guidance in a situation
like this, more like MAV values. Also nudged MBG up a few degrees as
they have had no problems overachieving in temps during recent bouts
of above normal temperatures regionally.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Precipitation chances are negligible for the next several days with
one caveat. Less a wave and more of a mid level warm advection push
ahead of a wave across Canada, which could be enough to generate
some light QPF in the form of snow across northeast SD/western MN
counties. Blended guidance seems to have glossed over this feature,
but it is identified in both the GFS and ECMWF so have added some
low POPs across our northeast CWA Wednesday PM.

As for temperatures, Monday features a westerly component and 925
readings close to a standard deviation above climo. Mixing to
900/850 yields temperatures in the upper 50s. Guidance does suggest
some moisture at 500/300mb, so high clouds may interfere but there
is less than 100% coverage so we should get some sunshine.

Tuesday/Wednesday we are back into a Canadian airmass. Another
significant shot of warm air is set for Friday, and after
coordination with surrounding offices, it does appear that
temperatures Friday could be a few degrees warmer than Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

MVFR CIGs have cleared KATY and they, as well as the rest of the
terminals, will be looking at mostly VFR conditions through the
TAF forecast period. There may be a few lake effect lower clouds
that affect KMBG and KPIR this afternoon, but will leave mention
as FEW in the TAFs for the time being. Breezy/gusty northwest
surface winds will subside at sunset.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TMT



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