Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 241148 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
648 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE CWA AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES EXIST NOW FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA
UP THROUGH SUNRISE. ALSO HAVE INSERTED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND SCT LOW VSBYS HAVE FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HYDRO PRODUCTS
AS WELL AND THIS IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TODAY AS SFC LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVERTAKES THE REGION. AT THE SFC
THOUGH...DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
WEATHER LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE AS WELL WITH NORTHERN AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT ON TUESDAY AND CONFINED THEM TO WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE DRY SFC HIGH STILL IN
PLACE.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MARCH
ACROSS A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
WHILE THE REGION DEALS WITH THE COMPLEXITIES OF A POTENTIAL
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF SPLIT-FLOW OVER THE REGION. COOLER THAN
CLIMO NORMS STILL LOOKS PROBABLE FOR WEDNESDAY...CWA-WIDE. THEN
LOW LEVEL WAA STARTS TO SET UP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES...SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
GOT SOME POST-CONVECTION PATCHY FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA PER SURFACE OBS AND FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ABOUT HALFWAY
THROUGH THE CWA /WESTERLY WIND ALREADY SETTING UP AT KMBG AND
KPIR/...AND SHOULD BE WORKING THROUGH THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6 OR 7 HOURS. ALL FOUR TERMINALS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING
BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR VFR TO
BECOME THE PREVAILING FLT CAT WEATHER CONDITIONS BY 18Z
TODAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


&&
.HYDROLOGY...
REPLACED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ACROSS MCPHERSON/EDMUNDS/FAULK
COUNTIES WITH AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR 24 HRS. HAVE NOT HEARD
ANY REAL PRESSING FLOODING ISSUES OUT THIS WAY...BUT RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES SUGGESTS THERE AREA LIKELY SOME AREAS
STILL EXPERIENCING OVERLAND FLOODING. WARNING POLYGON LINES UP
WITH HIGHEST STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...EXCEPT FOR EASTERN FAULK COUNTY
WHERE IT GOES ALL THE WAY TO THE SPINK LINE. REASON FOR THIS WAS
TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING NEAR THE CREEKS AS RUNOFF MOVES
FROM SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FAULK COUNTY.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR BROWN COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN
AREAL FLOOD WARNING.

WEST BRANCH OF 12 MILE CREEK AT DUMONT CONTINUES TO RISE THANKS TO
MORE HEAVY RAIN. IT ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND
THE SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS REPLACED WITH AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
HYDROLOGY...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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