Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 160928
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
328 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

The sfc high that was overhead Wednesday afternoon as shifted
just east of our area, and into MN. Expect breezy winds out of the
southeast today, as we are in between the exiting 1025mb high moving
across WI, and low pressure nearing from Montana and Wyoming.
Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 mph are possible.
We will be flirting with Wind Advisory criteria near the MO River
around 15Z, around the James River Valley by 18Z, and over our
eastern counties after 21Z. High temperatures will vary greatly
across the region, as a warm front surges into at least southern SD
by the end of the north day. with highs in the mid 30s, in western
Minnesota, to the mid 60s, in southwestern South Dakota. Increased
winds/gusts for tonight across the Coteau des Prairies.

Low pressure to our west will stretch from eastern Saskatchewan
through western SD by 03Z Friday. The southern extent of the low
will set up southwest to northeast across the cwa by 09Z, and just
to our south and east shortly after 12Z. This boundary will continue
to exit to our southeast during the day Friday, as temperatures rise
into the 40s. Southwesterly flow returns aloft late Thursday
afternoon, with several embedded waves nearing.

Still looking at the potential for light rain along and west of the
MO River Friday, with amounts of less than 0.10in set up across
Corson and Dewey Counties. Cooler air will not be far away. Friday
evening will bring about the highest pops of the period, with a
chance of rain changing to all snow. QPF is still expected to be
light, so snow should be less than an inch at this point. The best
chance of accumulations will likely be 00-03Z Saturday. The 500mb
trough will push across the Dakotas Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Highs will be back into the upper 20s to low 40s again
Saturday as breezy northwest winds usher in cooler air. 850mb temps
will fall to -4 to -12C (lowest over MN) by the end of the day
Saturday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

The extended period looks to be a fairly quiet one. The upper level
pattern will feature mainly northwest flow, with just a few weak
shortwaves moving through. The surface pattern will be fairly
progressive, with high pressure over the area Saturday night and
Sunday, to be followed by a weak frontal boundary moving through on
Monday. High pressure moves back in Monday night through Tuesday
night, with another weak frontal boundary moving through on
Wednesday. With no significant upper level support, both fronts
looks to move through dry, making for a completely dry extended
period.

Temperatures will be mild during the early part of the period, with
highs in the 40s and 50s. Cooler air moves in on Tuesday with highs
mainly in the 30s before slightly warmer air returns late in the
period. Overnight lows in the teens and 20s will be common.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

A deck of mvfr cigs over katy/kabr should gradually lower into
ifr. Also, patchy mvfr fog is possible along the edge of the
stratus late tnt, as depicted by several cams. Improvement in the
cigs will commence mid to late morning. At this time kmbg/kpir
are expected to remain low cloud free, but it will be close at
kmbg as the deck settles in just east of the terminal.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...TDK


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