Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261747 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1147 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 40S ALREADY.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AS OF 9Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAA
ECHOES ON RADAR OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
EXPECT VERY LITTLE...IF ANY PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE
CLOUD LAYER IS OVER 9K FT AGL. WEB-CAMS ALSO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40...IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...TO THE UPPER 50S...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH ADDED LLM FROM THE SNOW MELT TODAY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG. BOTH THE 21 AND 3Z SREF SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE BY 6Z. THAT SAID...THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS
EXCITING FOR FOG.

POOR MIXING WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF/GEM DUE TO BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. USED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE COOLER ADJMAV GUIDANCE.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME BASIC OR MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THAT BEING A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST...AND TROF IN THE EAST CONUS. HOWEVER
THERE IS ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
MUCH MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHUNT THIS COLD
AIR EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODELS
ARE CORRECT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
SUPERBLEND TO AT LEAST START THE TREND TOWARD COLDER. CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER IS LOW. AS FOR SNOW CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL WAVES
BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TO START THE FORECAST...THEN LIKELY END BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOSTLY SKC
OR JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER 06Z...BR/FG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED SOME
BR MENTION IN TAFS WITH AROUND 3SM VSBY...BUT COULD BE POTENTIALLY
LOWER VSBY. WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY/TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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