Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 172026
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
226 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 226 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

As the night shift alluded to, despite milder air aloft and weak
westerly 925mb flow, temperatures have struggled to move much today.
Thats the gist of the next 24 hours as well thanks to ample snow
cover. The exceptions will be the Coteau region which I`ll explain
next - and around the periphery of the CWA where there is less snow
cover (south) and the higher terrain (west).

Westerly flow upwards of 30kts and a steep inversion will result in
Coteau downslope winds this evening through mid day Wednesday. These
favorable mixing conditions will allow for the warmer air aloft to
mix to the surface and keep temperatures mild overnight and into
Wednesday. Blowing snow will remain in the forecast for that area.

The only other aspect of the forecast that needs to be addressed is
increasing low level moisture around a weak surface low Wednesday
night into Thursday. Models show some light QPF/drizzle signature
but on closer inspection NAM/GFS BUFKIT profiles only show moisture
through the lowest 2-3kft and thus this will more than likely just
be a layer of stratus and is not thick enough to generate
precipitation with dry conditions aloft. As such, removed pops that
were introduced with the latest blended guidance.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Main challenge in the extended period will be precipitation chances.
As low pressure strengthens over the central plains on Friday, may
see light precipitation develop over the eastern CWA. Warmer air
aloft may result in some sleet development, but chances look low at
this time. The precipitation will transition to rain/snow through
Sunday morning, before tapering off as high pressure moves in. The
next system looks to track somewhere across the central plains
Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS continues to indicate a more
southerly and slower track than the ECMWF, so for now will stick
with model consensus, keeping just some small pops in for now.

Warm air will be in place through the period, with daytime highs
mainly in the 30s through the period. Overnight lows in the teens
and 20s will be common.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF
period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin


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