Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 222038
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE CWA
ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A FAIRLY GOOD LLJ OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THAT
SAID...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. THE WEAK SHOWERS ARE BASED OFF THE NAM/GFS. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS.

WITH 925 AND 850 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20C...HIGHS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S...TO THE MID 80S. THESE
READINGS ARE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

THE 12Z MODELS TODAY SHOW MINIMAL CHANGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE REALLY RAMPING UP AROUND HERE
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DECENT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FINISHING UP ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT BOWLING BALL UPPER
CIRCULATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS A LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOME CAM SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR WEST RIVER COUNTIES MOVING QUICKLY
NORTHWARD. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS SATURDAY NIGHT...IF
CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE ELEVATED AND HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE /SUPERCELLULAR/. SO...HAIL AND WIND COULD
BECOME A THREAT. SUNDAY STILL WARRANTS A CLOSER LOOK AS THE 12Z NAM12
TODAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF YETERDAY`S 12Z RUN. THERE IS CLEARLY
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE CWA FROM
ROUGHLY ONIDA TO WATERTOWN...AND AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...DAYTIME HEATING IS NEARING ITS MAXIMUM.
SOME OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS THAT GO OUT THAT FAR IN FORECAST TIME /60
HOURS OUT/...ARE GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ANYWHERE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY /I.E. DE SMET TO BROOKINGS AREA/ IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHALL/DAY/ROBERTS/TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AGAIN...THE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS HERE SUGGEST A VARIETY OF SEVERE WEATHER
TYPES COULD BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY ALONG AND/OR NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY /INCLUDING THE
WATERTOWN...SISSETON...MILBANK...ORTONVILLE AND WHEATON AREAS/.

BEYOND SUNDAY...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AWAY
FROM THIS CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AFTER A BRIEF TIME OF
DRYING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP BACK UP AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND MORE
ENERGY FROM THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. GOOD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LINE UP ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING FOR AWHILE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TODAY...THE
805HPA AND 925HPA THERMAL PROGS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COLDER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS...WHICH DOES
PUSH THE NEEDLE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON WEDNESDAY. STILL LEFT THE P-TYPE ALL RAIN FOR
NOW...GIVEN THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS INTO THE
SHORTER RANGE FORECAST TIMEFRAME. THEN...THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKE
UP RESIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN CLIMO NORMAL. BUT SUNDAY IS
STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A TRANSITION DAY FROM WARMER TEMPS TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHIFT THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
SODAK/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT RAIN-
MAKER...COOLER AND DRIER /BELOW CLIMO NORMAL/ AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION AND HANG AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE THERE IS ANY
REAL POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A TEMPERATURE REBOUND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS OF KABR/KPIR
AND KMBG BETWEEN 6-11Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SD



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