Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 031822 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

HAVE ALLOWED ALL HEADLINES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO
EXPIRE...AND HAVE DOWNGRADED THE BLIZZARD WARNING ACROSS THE EAST
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW. MAIN ISSUES ACROSS
THE EAST ARE NOW REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW...BUT THE REDUCTIONS WILL LIKELY NOT BE LESS THAN ONE HALF TO
ONE MILE...SO THE ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THINGS ARE EVOLVING VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO CANCEL
THE VERY NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND MAKE IT INTO A WIND ADVISORY INSTEAD. ALSO MOVED UP
START TIME OF EASTERN CWA HEADLINES TO RIGHT NOW AS LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW HAS BEGUN FALLING. STRONG WINDS ARE AFFECTING
CENTRAL SD WITH THESE WINDS KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THEY WILL REACH THE I-29 CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z OR 13Z.
AS FOR SNOWFALL...THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA. STILL EXPECTING A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM AROUND
THE PIERRE AREA UP THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. GIVEN THE STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 45 MPH LATER THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECTING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AT TIMES SO WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS.
ALTHOUGH...HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH STRONGEST
WINDS SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE JUST HOW LOW AND WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE. STILL EXPECT IMPACTS THOUGH FROM
THE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW BEING BLOWN AROUND.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FOR MOST
AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AS A NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS. WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL TO 25 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO EXPLORE POSSIBILITY FOR A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR THE EASTERN CWA. MODERATING TEMPS
BEGIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THIS SHOULD SPELL A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER...THAT
SAID...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DO HAVE A FAIRLY HEALTHY WAVE COMING
THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
POPS REMAIN LOW...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BEAR WATCHING. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MEANWHILE...A RELATIVELY MILD AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 21Z-00Z
WHEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH. THESE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW NEAR KABR/KATY REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR
THROUGH 21Z. A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS MAY AFFECT KPIR OR KMBG
BRIEFLY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO EXTENT AND TIMING OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ONCE KATY CLEARS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ006>008-
     011-018>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE





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