Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 151200 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
600 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS AIR MASS IS
STILL CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MOIST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY MID
LEVELS. WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER AS WELL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. REPORTS OF VERY SLIPPERY ROADS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS ONE ACCIDENT THUS FAR. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA NOT COVERED IN THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY. EXPECTING SEVERAL TRAVEL ISSUES LATER THIS
MORNING WITH ROADS VERY SLICK AT THIS TIME. IN REGARDS TO THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH...DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO KNOCKED AN INCH OR TWO OFF ACCUMS
IN MOST AREAS.

STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A HUGE EXPANSE OF CLOUDS WELL INTO CANADA. DO NOT SEE THIS GOING
AWAY ANYTIME SOON AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO
TONIGHT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS WELL...SO THIS
COMBINED WITH THE CLOUDS LED TO AN INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK OVER OUR REGION
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT ONLY WEAK
SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK WITH NOT
MUCH FOR WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MIXED PRECIPITATION...FZRA/FZDZ/SLEET/SNOW...WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AROUND A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE COLD LAYER
DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY AND THE WARM AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZED
OUT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW. STEADY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT ATY AND PIR WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. THE SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING AT ATY WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL LOCATIONS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR BROWN-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DAY-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-
     HUGHES-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BUFFALO-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-JONES-LYMAN.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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