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000
FXUS63 KABR 241202 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
702 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

A VERY QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE SOME DETAILED DATA AS
PER THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HI RES MODELS THIS MORNING. MODELS
SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF CAPE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH 30 TO 40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. MODELS ARE PERHAPS PICKING UP ON A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. IF THIS IS THE CASE IT
COULD INITIATE A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. SO ADDED A POP THAT WAS NOT PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW WORKING ITS WAY
INTO EASTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING AND A VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS SET UP ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALREADY SEEING
SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA REPORTING GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH THIS MORNING. ALSO WATCHING WARM MOIST AIR SURGE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRATUS LAYER
NOSING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT MIXING POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BASED OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING 35 TO 40 KTS AVAILABLE TO BE MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...BELIEVE THAT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE MAY BE
SOME SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON /NO OTHER UPPER LIFT TO SPEAK OF WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD/. VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY ACROSS
THIS REGION...SO MAINLY EXPECTING VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER CLOSED LOW SPINS AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST CANADA. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...STILL NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNIFICANT 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND IT IS HARD TO PICK OUT ANY
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GULF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD AND ML CAPE VALUES WILL
RISE TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ALONG WITH
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL CERTAINLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND
TRACK EASTWARD.

NOT SEEING A REAL STRONG OR WELL DEFINED LLJ JET SET UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TIMING AND WHERE/WHEN STORMS MAY INITIATE.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
STILL LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SWRLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL
THURSDAY /AT THE EARLIEST/...WITH SHORT-WAVES ABOUNDING IN SAID
UPPER FLOW. AT SOME POINT LATE IN THE WEEK...THE MAJORITY OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROF
INFLUENCES THE PAC NW UPPER TROF TO EMERGE OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM TRANSIENT ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION TO MORE OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW PRESSURE DRIVEN
WAA-FORCED BROADER AND SLOWER MOVING PRECIPITATION SHIELD. NO
PLANS TO STRAY FROM SUPER WET ALLBLEND POPS IN THE EXTENDED. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...925HPA AND 850HPA THERMAL PROGS DO SHOW A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK FROM HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 ON MONDAY
TO HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 ON THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE
KABR AND KATY TERMINALS TODAY. MEANWHILE...CHANCES /ALBEIT LOW/
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF KPIR AND KMBG ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW UP IN SOME OF THE SHORT-RANGE HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST
MENTIONED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES AT VARYING START TIMES DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BUFFALO-
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
     LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN/SERR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN