Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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526
FXUS63 KABR 261756 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Scattered thunderstorms along and in the James Valley this
morning holding on pretty good. Expect these to diminish/end into
the early afternoon as they move southeast. The second area in
western sd was diminishing as the satellite was showing warming
tops and weakening radar trends. Otherwise, the cam models all
show redevelopment this afternoon and early evening. Have adjusted
pops across the region. Also, may have to lower highs for the day
if it does not look like we will get much sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 209 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Several small waves in the zonal to northwest flow aloft will help
enhance the sfc pattern throughout the short term. A sfc low will be
shifting into western SD this morning and over western NE this
afternoon. Initially watching a couple of cells over Campbell Co.
this morning, that at least the HRRR has picked up on. Utilized the
smaller scale/near-term solutions heavily for today, reducing pops
over the southeast. While the potential for showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible, the best chance for stronger to
severe thunderstorms is expected along and west river, closer to the
sfc low and best shear. A sfc trough will extend northeast from the
low, into northeastern ND.

The east to west oriented cold front, extending from southern Hudson
Bay through central ND, will be slowly sinking into our area
tonight. This will keep at least some small mention of precip over
the area. The main concern will be the potential for an MCS to
develop to our west this afternoon, and shift moderate precip
tonight.

Dry high pressure across south central Canada will be slowly moving
in behind the frontal boundary Wednesday night-Thursday. Mainly dry
northeast winds will dominate the cwa from 18Z Wednesday through
Thursday. Highs both Wednesday and Thursday will top out in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Northwest flow aloft will dominate until late Saturday when a ridge
begins to build in. A weak area of sfc low pressure will move off of
the Rockies Thu night through Saturday, bringing the potential for
showers and thunderstorms. Moisture and instability will be limited
as the upper ridge builds, so even though another low will move
through the Plains on Monday, precip is reduced to a slight chance.

Temperatures will rise through the extended. Highs will top out near
80 on Friday and then will climb into the 90s by the start of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

An area of low pressure crossing the region will being showers and
thunderstorms to all terminals through this evening. Some
thunderstorms could be strong with torrential rainfall and small
hail possible. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible
with the stronger storms. MVFR cigs will be possible Wednesday
morning behind the low pressure system.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...SD



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