Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271754 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1154 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND STRATUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS WELL...SO LOWERED PROSPECTIVE HIGHS INTO THE 30S FOR
MINNESOTA COUNTIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MONDAYS SNOW MELT...AND LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEREFORE PERSISTED WITH THE INHERITED FOG
MENTION. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGESTS ALMOST ALL SNOW COVER HAS DIMINISHED /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LEOLA HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS/. THIS
FACT...COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY...OR EVEN WARMER IN SOME AREAS...DESPITE A MORE LIMITED
MIXING PROFILE.

THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
MODELS SUGGEST THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THIS CWA INITIALLY. THE AREA MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SIDES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

IT APPEARS THAT IN GENERAL THE SAME MID LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGE
WEST AND TROF EAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT WITH SOME
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A BIT
STRONGER TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO CATCH ONTO THIS. THE GFS
NOW PRETTY MUCH AGREES. SO THE PERIOD STARTS OFF RELATIVELY
MILD...BUT THEN BY WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RULE
AGAIN. FOR NOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK
LOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KMBG AND KPIR THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. FURTHER EAST OVER KABR AND ESPECIALLY
KATY...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOOKING AT POSSIBILITY OF FG/BR AND
LOWER CIGS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AT
KATY WHERE LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY NOT TOO FAR AWAY. WILL FORECAST
LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL IN REGARDS TO ALL
THIS HAPPENING...AND IF SO...THE LONGEVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OVER KABR...LOWER CIGS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...BUT BR QUITE
POSSIBLE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY/TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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