Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 212333 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP! FOR TNT A FEW EARLY
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS EVENING. OUT WEST WEAK RETURN FLOW
AND DEVELOPING LLJ COULD FUEL SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT GETS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN CONTINUES EAST OF THE MO RIVER. NOT
SURE ABOUT THE EASTERN CWA AND WILL LEAVE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT
SINCE MIXED LAYER CAPES LOOK PRETTY LOW AND THERE IS NOT MUCH
FORCING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MAJOR WAVE LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH
PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE PER PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE WAA
PATTERN/PCPN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND THAT MAY LIMIT ANY
POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME AMOUNTS. FFG IS STILL APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR MOST AREAS SINCE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PATCHY OVER THE
LAST WEEK OR SO. FOR NOW NO HEADLINES NEEDED BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED. TO GIVE A HEADS UP I HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY IN
ITSELF COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY. THE FAR EASTERN CWA MAY BE
UNDER THE GUN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SVR WEATHER IF THE
MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT QUICK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AIRMASS
RECOVERY. THE SHEAR IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT FOR NOW AM NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND AGREE
WELL WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST AFFECTING OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER WYOMING/MONTANA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...DRYING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY. THEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION. THIS MAY END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS IN LATER FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH DRYING IN
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THURSDAY MAY ALSO END UP BEING DRY
WITH THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME 80S MAY OCCUR OUT WEST ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR A
SHORT TIME EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AFFECTING KABR AND KATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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