Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 020536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER FORCING/ASCENT HAS BEEN TOO WEAK TO INITIATE STORMS THUS
FAR...AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LLJ DOES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST
AREA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN


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