Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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974
FXUS63 KABR 281538 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1038 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Made a few minor changes to the forecast this morning based off of
current trends. Adjusted pops to catch the isolated to scattered
showers across parts of the central CWA. Cloud cover is also
limiting temperature rise this morning...so dropped max T`s just a
few degrees across the northern CWA. Otherwise will continue to
monitor shortwave induced showers across western SD. Model forcing
progs suggest most precip will remain west of our CWA...but may
have to add additional pops if precip expands further east than
expected. No severe weather anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

The large sfc high over south central Canada and central ND will
remain along the U.S./Canadian border today, and push a sizable
ridge across our forecast area Friday. This will be while the main
high shifts towards the Great Lakes Region. Despite the sfc high, we
will continue to see off and on showers and thunderstorms slide
in thanks to the chain of small waves in our 500MB northwesterly
flow that will continue through Saturday. Timing and placement of
the individual waves will be difficult, but mainly impacting west
river.

The steady east to northeasterly near-sfc winds will be on the way
out during the day Friday. Another day of highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s is expected today, with highs slowly increasing back into
the 80s cwa wide by Saturday. 850MB temps by the end of the day
Saturday will rise to 16 to 22C, highest west.

Thunderstorm chances will return to much of the area Friday, with a
better chance on Saturday as the sfc ridge continues to exit to our
east and plenty of low level moisture returns on increasing southerly
winds. PW values will range from around 0.75-1.1in Friday
afternoon, and 1-1.4in Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

A building upper ridge will bring warmer temps for the latter half
of the weekend and the start of the work week. Highs will be near or
slightly above average. By Wednesday an upper low will depress the
ridge as the low progresses east over the Canadian plains. Shortwave
energy will be difficult to time through the period, but the trend
remains active. Coupled with persistent sfc low pressure, there
remains sufficient energy for periodic showers and thunderstorms.
Best chances this forecast run for cwa-wide precip will be Sunday
and Monday nights and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. However, cigs may
fall to 3500 to 5000 ft in and around showers and toward Friday
morning. Showers are most likely to impact KMBG or KPIR.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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