Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 300554 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE 06Z UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST THE FAR EAST STILL SEEING A MORE SOLID DECK
OF CLOUDS. DUE TO THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO
WARM...BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TO RISE...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. SO FAR...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE CWA ON
THE NOSE OF A 40-50KT LLJ AND NORTH OF A +10 TO +12 DEGREE MID
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. CONDITIONS BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THIS CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE CAP WEAKENS AND DECENT INSTABILITY AND 45 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS
THE EAST DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME
TO AN END BY LATE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...LEAVING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH ON SATURDAY...AND WITH CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 70S.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT...SO INHERITED ALLBLEND POP GRIDS
LOOKED GOOD FOR THIS. THINGS GET A BIT MORE UNCLEAR BY THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WEEK AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE EJECTING
INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS VARYING ON THIS THOUGH...WITH THE GFS
BEING RATHER QUICK TO BRING THE LOW OUT ONTO THE PLAINS VS THE
SLOWER EC AND GEM SOLUTIONS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK...GIVEN WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR 850MB TEMPS...EXPECTING
MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL AFFECT ABR AND ATY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WHILE SOME FOG IS EXPECTED AT PIR AND MBG. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH NORTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT PIR AND MBG DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER ATY AND ABR
FROM MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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