Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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247
FXUS63 KABR 281727 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1227 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 1020 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Area of low clouds and fog, dense at times, remains over the far
northeastern CWA and doesn`t look to be dissipating. May have to
extend the mention of fog into the afternoon hours. Main area of
precipitation to the southwest has not moved much either, with
just some weak echoes showing up over the far southwestern CWA. No
changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Been watching fog deck move south across southeast ND over the past
several hours, but has slowed a bit along the ND/SD border. Much of
the hi-res VSBY output continues to show a bit more of a southward
push into the northeast CWA over the next few hours, mainly along
either side of the Coteau. Previous WX grids had this handled well
and have not made many changes. Will see how things progress over
the next few hours as the fog is dense just over the border with
widespread 1/4 mile or less visibility. Any appreciable progress
into our CWA will likely require a hard look at a headline for dense
fog.

Otherwise for today, surface trough located over the high plains
will support rain showers for western SD, including the western CWA.
Although, have pushed POPs back a bit further west today, basically
west of the Missouri River. During the overnight hours, rain chances
spread eastward across southern SD, basically keeping northern and
eastern areas dry. The rest of the short term is dry after this
system departs the area on Wednesday.

Temperatures throughout the short term will stay on the mild side,
with readings in the 50s to lower 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The upper level split flow pattern will continue through most of
the extended. The end of the week system will have some upper level
support from the Missouri River valley west. A weaker upper level
trough dips into the region through the weekend potentially
generating some showers across northern SD. Models continue to
diverge next week with the ECMWF dragging the split flow pattern
aloft much farther north and dousing the Dakotas as a low moves
through the Plains. The GFS, at the same time, maintains the
current upper level pattern and keeps the CWA dry. Therefore,
stuck with consensus model pops. Temperatures through the period
will remain above average with highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF
period. Light rain showers are possible mainly along and west of
the Missouri River this afternoon and tonight.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Parkin



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