Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 062351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RECORDS SET AS
WELL. ALTHOUGH...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION AND ABR HAS FALLEN BACK TO 86 DEGREES. ALSO SEEING WDLY
SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SPINK AND
CLARK COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND SOUTHWEST AREAS AS WELL. ANY
STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE SOUNDING
PROFILES. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY ARE STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT HAD TO
UPDATE WIND GRIDS A FEW TIMES TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SPEEDS MOVING
THROUGH.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE
REGION. MAY CONTINUE TO SEE THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS PASSING COLD FRONT. EXPECTING MAINLY
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL
GET FAIRLY LOW ONCE AGAIN...WITH READINGS IN THE 20S...BUT WINDS DO
NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUPPRESSING TEMPS TO BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS.
TEMPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 60 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

OTHER THAN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE ATY AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR


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