Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
623 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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