000
FXUS63 KABR 160759
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
259 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions (gusts up around 35 to 50mph) will persist
through the morning. Easterly winds will gradually shift around to
northerly as the system progresses east over the next 24-36 hours.

- Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to expand to
cover the forecast area through the course of the morning,
persisting through the day, before diminishing in coverage tonight
into early Wednesday. Total moisture will be highly variable due to
convective nature, but generally will see from a half inch to an
inch and a half.

- Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be around 10 degrees
below normal, topping out in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Line of convection covers the Missouri valley and west, while
another area of convection is headed up from southeast SD. Through
the course of the morning into the day, these areas converge across
the CWA. Showers with weak convective elements will continue across
the area into the overnight hours, eventually waning tonight into
early Wednesday. As for winds, 1/2km winds show a 40kt low level jet
into the eastern CWA this morning, while winds begin shifting around
the low to the northwest across the Missouri valley this afternoon.
Not a strong cold advection signature and BUFKIT mixed winds are
tempered somewhat. Both these parts of the system will thus result
in near advisory level winds...though early this morning we are
getting some Coteau enhancement into the eastern James valley. Will
advisory that area.

As for moisture, still have around 1/2 to 1 and a 1/2 inches total,
but given prolonged convective nature for much of this there is
probably a much wider range that will come out of the system.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

By 00Z Thursday the 500mb low over southern British Columbia will be
over southern Saskatchewan, with 2 areas of low pressure at the
surface to our south across eastern CO/KS and exiting across the
Upper Great Lakes with a trough extending through northeastern ND.
This will be the start of our below normal temperatures, with highs
in the mid 40s to low 50s Thursday afternoon. Stronger winds will
also be possible, particularly over north central to northeastern
SD, with the tighter pressure gradient between the exiting low and
nearing ridge. Wind gusts of 30-35kts will be common, with a few
areas flirting with gusts closer to 40-45kts over Corson/Dewey
Counties and the Leola Hills/McPherson County. We`ll continue to
monitor the trends, but given the cold air advection, those values
look reasonable at this point. 850mb temperatures will fall from 1
to 4C at 00Z Thursday to around -5C by 15Z Thursday and moderate to -
3 to 0C by 00Z Friday. Mainly dry weather is forecast for the entire
long term period. However, the there are a few exceptions with
chances of precipitation being mainly 20% or less over our far
southern counties Thursday morning, and along the ND/SD border
Thursday afternoon.

The cooler air will continue, with highs into the mid 40s low 50s
through Saturday. While a ridge of high pressure will attempt to
build across SD, it will take until 00Z Saturday it can fully do so.
This will be when the then nearly stacked surface to 500mb shifts
across Ontario/Hudson Bay. The surface high over southern
Alberta/Saskatchewan at 00Z Saturday will sink southeast across SD
by 00Z Sunday and into NE/KS Sunday morning.

Unsettled weather may return behind the exiting high, but confidence
is low on specifics. There is less than 20% chances of
precipitation Sunday night/Monday and again Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Will have thunderstorms near the KPIR/KMBG to start the TAF
period...expanding to potentially cover the KATY/KABR terminals
tonight. VFR VISBY for the most part. CIGS also VFR...but
eventually lowers CIGS will push down to MVFR/IFR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ006-007-011-
     018-019.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Connelly