Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 162110
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME
PRETTY COLD TEMPERATURES. OUT WEST WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG
STRONG...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO BE HELD UP SOME. SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK WAVE AND CONSEQUENT TROP FOLD
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS PLAN
VIEW AND TIME HEIGHT MODEL DATA...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS AM NOT
TOO HIP ON MEASURABLE PCPN. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN AIR GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO
DRY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING THE WEST TO EAST TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS...ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE ECMWF IS COLDER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN
OR SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF. SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE
COMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS ARE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW
AREA OF CLEARING EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. THEREFORE...THE KABR TAF SITE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE BE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE KATY TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER KMBG AND KPIR ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH AROUND TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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