Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 011743 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1243 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD BREAK UP/MOVE OUT INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER HERE SOME.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS. ADJUSTED
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGIN MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR CWA. INSTABILITY AXIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE OVER WESTERN SD NEAR THE LEE TROUGH AXIS. HI
RES CAM SOLUTIONS SHOWING CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN SD OUT OF
MT/WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY PERHAPS
MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL SD LATER THIS EVENING. SVR PARAMETERS SHOW
BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND INTO MT.

TUESDAY IS MUCH MORE INTERESTING AS THE BEST PARAMETERS SHIFT EAST
RIGHT INTO OUR CWA. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD.
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH STRONG SFC
HEATING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 3500
J/KG OVER CENTRAL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALSO HAVE 30
TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH. SFC LOW WILL BE DEEPENING OVER
WESTERN SD AS A COLD FRONT ALSO MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
STILL EXPECTING STORM INITIATION ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SD BY LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT/TROUGH AXIS.
ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING AIDED
BY AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT COULD VERY WELL ALLOW FOR CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR
SOME FORM OF AN MCS TO MARCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CWA INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS WE SEE A GRADUAL END OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOWERED POPS A BIT OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

PERSISTENT SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER OR NEAR THE DAKOTAS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE KEYING IN A
LITTLE BETTER SO WAS ABLE TO DRY OUT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WED NIGHT
WHEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM CANADA BRIEFLY TO DRY OUT THE
LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AND PRECIP WILL NUDGE
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY RIDES OVER AND THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL AGAIN FLIRT WITH
THE EASTERN CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OFFERING ANOTHER BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
POPS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK TO PUSH THE RIDGE SOUTH ON SATURDAY
BRINGING FURTHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. ON SUNDAY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SD HELPING TO CUT OFF PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR
THE END OF THE EXTENDED...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.

WITH ALL OF THE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN..TEMPS WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME EVEN REACHING AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S BUT MUCH OF
THE REGION SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT. IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...REACHING THE KPIR/KMBG AREA IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
TIME FRAME...AND THE KABR/KATY REGION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR


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