Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 150552 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1252 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 804 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Leftover deformation zone will continue to move east overnight,
with clearing gradually spreading east across the forecast area.
Did add a little late night/early morning fog to the grids given
slackening wind/clearing skies. Rest of the forecast looks okay
for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

System continues to wrap up overhead with moderate rain, a few
rumbles of thunder and a sprinkling or two of grauple. Back to
the west there remains a band of rain associated with mid level
frontogenesis as well. With all the rain across the area, the low
level atmosphere is expected to be quite saturated, however there
is some lightly drier air upstream so despite clearing overnight
it is still questionable that fog will develop, despite a surface
ridge moving overhead. This feature will result in our winds
having a westerly component, whether northwest or becoming
southwest after passage. Only one CAM supported fog development,
likely under the ridge axis where lighter winds could allow for
favorable conditions before picking back up and mixing out. As
such, will omit any mention of fog overnight but will pass along
to the evening shift as something potentially to watch.

Sunday will be cool, with warm advection but temperatures still
taking their time to moderate. A weak secondary wave will follow,
but result in mostly mid clouds across the east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

500 mb heights in the 570s and 825mb heights in the +15 - +22C range
through the extended will lead to unseasonably warm temperatures all
week. Highs will climb into the 60s and 70s about 10 to 20 degrees
above climatological averages. Although a few fronts will skim
through the area, the region is expected to remain dry until next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Clear skies/decreasing winds across the region for the rest of
tonight could lead to some patchy late night/early morning fog
given the rainfall from earlier on Saturday. Sunday should bring
VFR conditions once any morning fog burns off.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Dorn



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