Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 302003 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
203 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1046 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Low pressure over the Twin Cities area continues to wrap light
snow southward over the eastern CWA, as well as portions of
central SD. Accums are expected to be around an inch or less
though. Still seeing some pretty gusty winds over central SD but
blowing snow impacts have been reduced as shown by area web cams.
Basically just seeing some near-surface blowing and drifting with
no real obstructions to visibility. Will let the Winter Weather
Advisory expire close to its 18Z expiration time. Otherwise, will
continue to see cloudy skies today with breezy/windy conditions in
addition to the areas of light snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Wrap around moisture will remain with us for the next few days
despite low pressure slowly filling and lifting to the northeast.
Profiles suggest P-Type will continue to be snow today, however a
quick trip outside indicates a mix of light snow and sprinkles.
Thats in line with Bufkit profile trends of slowly drying out the
dendritic growth zone, with a rather thick saturation layer below
8kft. Thankfully not much lift in that layer, and ceilings are
between 1 and 3kft - so any additional precipitation will be light
and some evaporation can be expected before moisture reaches the
surface. Continued to mention Snow or Freezing Rain for portions of
the Coteau tonight, however again intensity will be too low and it
appears ground temperatures too warm for it to be a
significant problem, though will have to monitor.

With clouds stuck in place and limited thermal advection -
temperatures will see minimal movement with highs in the 30s and
lows in the 20s/teens.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Will see a fairly progressive upper level pattern during the
extended period, with a shortwave trough tracking across the region
Friday night through Sunday, followed by weak ridging Sunday night
and Monday before another trough moves through Monday night and
Tuesday.

At the surface, high pressure will be over the area when the period
begins, then gets pushed east by an approaching trough. This trough
looks to move through mostly dry on Saturday, followed by weak
ridging on Sunday before a stronger low pressure system approaches
early next week. The models differ on the track of this system, with
the GFS taking it across North Dakota and the ECMWF and GEM taking
it a bit further south across South Dakota. Therefore, will stick
fairly close to the Superblend which keeps slight chance pops
across much of the CWA Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures will be around or slightly above normal Saturday
through Monday, with highs in the 30s. Will then see the beginnings
of a cold spell arrive on Tuesday, with highs in the mid teens to
mid 20s. Overnight lows in the upper teens and 20s Friday night
through Sunday night will give way to the cooler air, with lows
mainly in the teens Monday night and in the single digits Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Areas of -SN will continue over the region into the evening hours,
especially across KATY and KABR. VSBY may be reduced to as low as
1SM or 2SM at times within areas of heavier SN. Otherwise, expect
widespread MVFR CIGs to continue through the TAF forecast period,
with perhaps some IFR sneaking in over northeast SD late tonight
into Thursday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...TMT



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