Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 262351
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...KEEPING ENERGY NEAR OR OVER THE CWA
MUCH OF THE TIME. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK FROM
WESTERN KANSAS TO OVER IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN CWA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE RAIN MAY MIX
WITH OR SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. COULD SEE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEST RIVER...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A HALF INCH OR SO. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF...LIKELY COMING TO AN END BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COOL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT...AND WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S WEST TO THE
UPPER 30S EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE 500MB LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL BE MOVE ACROSS NE BY
THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY.
UP ACROSS CENTRAL SD-FAR W CENTRAL MN...E WINDS WILL REMAIN AS
MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS N INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE INVERTED SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE SFC LOW ITSELF
SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR S /ACROSS E NE SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY
MORNING/. SO THE MAIN STORY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW FRIDAY. LOOKS TO BE A WET SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY. TS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SE...CLOSER TO THE SFC
LOW. EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY IS STILL
UNKNOWN...ALTHOUGH PRECIP LOOKS TO DIMINISH AS THE 500MB LOW EITHER
SHIFTS ACROSS IA/W WI...AS THE 26/00Z ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...OR
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES  LIKE THE 26/12Z GFS. EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS LIKE RIDGING WOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN ALOFT AS LOW
SINGLE DIGIT 850MB TEMPS REMAIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
JUMP IN OUR HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES INTO THE REGION. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO 2 MILES OR LESS AT
TIMES IN RAIN AND FOG. OTHERWISE...LIFR/IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MOHR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.