Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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186
FXUS63 KABR 180530 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST TODAY/TONIGHT WITH PRESSURE RISES OF
12MB/6 HOURS ALONG WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE RESULT IS
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR MORE OR LESS THE WHOLE CWA. AS THE PRESSURE
BUBBLE MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL WEAKEN A TAD...BEFORE BETTER
MIXING DEVELOPS WITH SUNRISE MONDAY AM. FOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...READINGS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH GUIDANCE IS GETTING BETTER
ALIGNED WITH 850MB READINGS FALLING INTO THE -5 TO -7C RANGE BY 06Z
TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM MONDAY THANKS TO STRATO CU
DEVELOPMENT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALSO RESULTING IN SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE OF THE
RAIN/SNOW VARIETY.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY...A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH SO THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL DECOUPLE...LEADING TO
READINGS IN THE 20S. NO HEADLINES AS OF YET WITH WIND HEADLINES
OVERHEAD AND FREEZE HEADLINES TO THE NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THERE IS STILL A LOW END CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST ZONES /HIGHLIGHT THE I-90
CORRIDOR/ ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ONE IMPULSE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED IS
DRY UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW SWITCHES BACK TO A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. ONE OR MORE SMALLER/TRANSIENT AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP INTO THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES BACK
TO THIS CWA. PER 925HPA AND 850HAP THERMAL PROGS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE GRADUALLY
WARMING UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

PRECIP CONTINUES TO AFFECT KABR AND KMBG. RAIN HAS STARTED TO MIX
WITH SNOW. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE COLD CORE LOW IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH MOVES NORTHEAST.
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KATY THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO
35 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND DIMINISH BY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS
     MORNING FOR SDZ003>006-009-010.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN



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