Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 162011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
311 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The area is currently seeing increasing south to southeast winds
along with temperatures in the lower 80s, to the lower 90s. The
strongest winds and warmest temperatures are occurring along and
west of the Missouri River, or where very high fire danger is
expected. While winds are meeting red flag criteria, RH values are
falling short. With a few more hours of heating, along with some
mixing yet this afternoon, red flag conditions are still expected in
fire weather zone 268. Will continue monitoring conditions in zone
267 for a possible expansion to the red flag.

An area of low pressure and associated front will cross the region
on Monday, mainly during the afternoon hours. With southwesterly
mixing winds, along with very warm temps at 925 mb should produce
hot temperatures in the upper 90s and the low 100s. Heat indices
will likely exceed the century mark. Will hold off on issuing a heat
advisory at this time.

The surface cold front will become the focus for thunderstorms,
mainly after 21Z thanks to an EML. While both MU-cape and 0-6 km
bulk shear values are moderate, high values of DCAPE should create
damaging wind gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

For much of the long term a hot mid level ridge will remain in place
over the south central conus with fast flow aloft over the forecast
area. That mid level flow aloft will increase markedly by mid week.
With a sfc frontal boundary hanging around and increasing deep layer
shear over the region, will likely see several rounds of convection
this week. Unfortunately, there is little agreement on placement and
timing of MCSs, so broad brush pops from in house model blend will
have to suffice for now.  That said, mid level thermal ridge
suggests most activity will occur over the east and northern parts
of the area.  Temperatures overall should favor near to slightly
above normal through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through tonight at all


SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ268.



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