Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 131750 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1150 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Issued at 1142 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Arctic high pressure is centered over MN currently, with winds
becoming light out of the southeast for most locations across the
CWA. Very cold temperatures remain in place with much of the CWA
still below zero. Highs today appear on track with readings
topping out in the single digits and teens. Will also be watching
light snow sliding southeast across western SD through the day.
Some of this activity may make its way into the southwestern CWA
later today so no major changes to POPs at this time. Any accums
will remain very light and generally less than a half inch.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Light winds remain as Arctic high over south central ND slides over
our eastern counties by 12Z, and southwestern MN 15-18Z, before
exiting to eastern IA by 06Z Sunday. At the same time, the focus
will shift to our west. An elongated trough stretching from central
MT through eastern WY will slide east, with a sfc low developing
along the western SD/NE border around 06Z Saturday. While snow will
be possible with this feature in our northwesterly flow aloft (late
this afternoon west of the MO River, and this evening over our
southwest counties), much of the energy will remain to our
southwest. Kept snowfall amounts to around 0.5in or less.

Wind chill readings remain low, and in a borderline Wind Chill
Advisory level through around 17Z this morning. However, winds are
calm or light, so will continue without any headlines. Then with
warm air advection taking hold behind the sfc high, and lows only
in the single digits below and above zero, and still relatively
light winds, headlines will still not be needed for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

The period begins with a highly amplified mid level pattern across
the conus, featuring a central/eastern conus trof, and
rockies/western conus ridge. Deep northerly flow will continue to
usher in cold air to the region, at least during the early part of
the period. The main arctic intrusion will occur Sunday night into
Monday as a cold front moves south across the region. A very cold
airmass will follow the front into the region.  A few snow showers
may accompany the front, but any accumulation will be minor.  Wind
chills will also turn brutally cold Sunday night and Monday. The
airmass across the Northern Plains will begin to modify by the
middle of next week as the pattern de-amplifies, and air more of
pacific origin moves across the Rockies and into the plains.
Temperatures will favor below normal through Tuesday, but then
should turn around and favor near or above normal by the latter half
of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions will persist early on in the TAF forecast period.
Early this afternoon there will be an area of clouds with CIGs
around 3000 ft moving into KPIR. A more widespread area of MVFR
CIGs are expected to spread from west to east across the region
this evening/overnight.




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