Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 230948
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IOWA WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING LIGHT SNOW TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT
SAID...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE LACK OF PCPN IN MINNESOTA THAT SHOULD
MOVE INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND MID MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
POPS SOME FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 BY THIS AFTERNOON
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRYING TREND. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER LOOKS FINE FOR NOW...BUT
SUSPECT IT MAYBE CANCELLED EARLY AS MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA
LATER TNT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TNT. ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE
NOT IN A REAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSITY OF PCPN ON THURSDAY
WHICH LEADS TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. THE 21Z SREF HAD A LOW
PROBABILITY OF THIS CWA SEEING 4 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE 3Z RUN IS BASICALLY DRY. THE NAM/GEM ALSO SHOWS VERY
LITTLE SNOWFALL AS WELL. THE ECMWF/GFS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL
MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY TO INCREASE
POPS IN THE WEST...AND DECREASE THEM IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
DURING THE LONG TERM. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WAVE
EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THAT TIME...PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...EAST INTO MINNESOTA. AFTER THAT IT APPEARS MAINLY DRY FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A POLAR PLUNGE OF AIR COMES SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP...EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW....ESPECIALLY AT PIR
AND MBG. THE SNOW WILL DISSIPATE/END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-
     HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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