Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 200535 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1235 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE REMAINED CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND
DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IF AT ALL. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS
TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
LATE.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AMID A SUNNY SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

TONIGHT -> WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT WILL BE GIVING WAY
TO HEIGHT FALLS AND APPROACHING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. TRACKING A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SWRN UNITED STATES...WHICH ARE
SUPPOSED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA...SEEMS SOME PRELIMINARY ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD
GET GOING OUT WEST BY LATE TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CAM
SOLUTIONS STILL HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS CRANK BACK UP TO 1.50 INCHES OR
MORE...SO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT -> THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CHASING IT OUT OF THE CWA RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY. THE
CWA SITS BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS ON THURSDAY...BUT BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE REGION BRINGS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.




.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER
TROF ROTATES OUT OF THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...A S/W
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH CHC POPS CONTINUING IN THE FCST. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE COOLING TO A BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE ON CHANCES OF PCPN DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN TIMING OF EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BE MOVING THRU THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...A COOLER AIRMASS
WILL TAKE HOLD THAT WILL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THEN LOOK FOR
THEM TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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