Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 071959
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
259 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST JUST
NORTHWEST OF WATERTOWN. THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THAT IS
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SHORTWAVE IS ALSO
ROTATING DOWN THE UPPER FLOW OVER CENTRAL ND. NOT MUCH TO NOTE
WITH THE WAVE RIGHT NOW AS THERE ARE JUST SOME GENERAL STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE IS SOUTH OF
THIS CWA...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM NEAR KATY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AROUND 3Z. A WEAKER WAVE
MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. DRIER AIR
THEN MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THIS POINT...IT WOULD APPEAR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD
BE THE BEST IDENTIFIABLE TIME PERIOD FOR BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HEALTHY
LOOKING LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS A BIT MORE MUDDY AND DID NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM ALLBLEND POPS...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE OVERDONE WITH POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CANNOT SAY I CAN REALLY PINPOINT A
TIME PERIOD THOUGH WHERE THE FORECAST CAN REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT IN SHORTWAVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WARM TEMPS TO START THINGS OFF WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S. TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS
ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THUS ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EC THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WHEREAS THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

QUITE A BIT GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT
APPEARS KMBG/KABR/KATY WILL BE AFFECTED BY SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS IN TAFS. ANY HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR. KPIR APPEARS AS IF
THEY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL ALSO SEE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN FROM THE
WEST TO MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE TRIED TO
REFLECT THIS IN TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. BY 15Z OR SO TUESDAY EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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