Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260734 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

EXPECT SOME LLJ/WAA SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL SD. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND POPS
DEPENDING ON HOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. ALSO...MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT
FOG EAST IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE GETS BROKEN DOWN BY A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD BY AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GFS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SHOWING AN AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH A MID LEVEL CAP MAY HINDER THE POSSIBILITY
SOMEWHAT. THEREFORE...WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH A SCHC POP. WEDNESDAY
AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MINIMAL AND MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A HUGE SEVERE THREAT...BUT MORE OF A
GENERAL SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM EVENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WILL SEE WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. AFTER ONE MORE SOMEWHAT
COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S TONIGHT...WILL
GENERALLY SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBOUND BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER
80S TO THE MID 90S ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE...COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR THE DEW
POINTS...ABR AND ATY MAY HAVE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COMING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE PIR AND MBG AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK



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