Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 171728 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 1011 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Scattered showers continue across portions of the CWA this
morning. Eastern portion of the area has been upgraded to a
marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon. Looks like best
timing for that will be between 3 PM and 8 PM. No changes made to
winds or temperatures at this time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Scattered showers moving into the forecast area this morning
associated with a shortwave moving out of the Rockies in westerly
flow. Once this initial wave pushes east, general consensus between
deterministic guidance and CAMs is that there will be additional
redevelopment of convection so long as we see some daytime heating.
With about 500j/kg skinny CAPE and uni-directional westerly shear,
anticipate if convection develops the strongest storms will be fast
moving with small hail and gusty winds. Additionally, mixed winds
outside of convection is still on the order of 20G30kts - so it will
be another windy day across the CWA.

Diabatically driven convection will weaken overnight, however there
is evidence for a second weaker subtle wave passing shortly behind
the first, so will at least keep the mention of showers going across
much of the area overnight, though QPF potential is minimal.

We remain in an active pattern with cooler temperatures aloft in
northwest flow through the start of next week. No major waves show
up in deterministic guidance however, and NAM BUFKIT soundings show
peak heating skinny CAPE both Sunday and Monday. Mixed winds also
remain breezy out of the northwest. The result will be partly to
mostly cloudy skies with some light showers and temperatures
actually below average for a few days.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

The long term should continue to feature a west CONUS mid level
ridge and east CONUS trof, but the entire pattern should undergo
a bit of a deamplification during the forecast period.

The main chances of pcpn during the period will occur on Wednesday
and again Thursday. An eastward moving frontal boundary will
interact with increasing LLM/instability on Wednesday to
potentially produce some showers/thunderstorms in the east. Better
chances are shaping up for Thursday as LLM spreads north into
especially eastern South Dakota. A wave aloft, and at the surface,
is expected to slide across the region in the afternoon and
evening with the end result being convection. Current models are
in fair agreement concerning this system. Stability/shear progs
are alluding to fair chances for severe weather. Stay tuned! After
that system moves by it should turn dry and mild for the
following weekend.

Temperatures should average out near normal, but may trend down
toward the end of the period as sfc high pressure nudges in from the
north next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

VFR cigs will prevail across the area this afternoon and through
much of the overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the area this afternoon into the early evening,
with the precipitation coming to an end around or shortly after
sunset. An area of MVFR cigs may develop across the east late
tonight into early Sunday morning, affecting KABR and KATY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin



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