Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 232352 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
652 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT OBS ARE SHOWING SLOW PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THE LOW IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH A
COUPLE OF WINDS SHIFTS/FRONTS SETTING UP. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ANOTHER WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD THERE HAS BEEN SOME ENHANCED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER ONLY SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. WITH MOST OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT CORSON AND DEWEY...WHERE RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME THINNING AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF OUR
CWA /TEMPERATURE AT KHON IS CURRENTLY 81 DEGREES VS. TEMPERATURE AT
KATY ONLY 72 DEGREES/. AS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT THE SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED CAPE
ACROSS OUR CWA...SO CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE BASED STORMS IS LOW. AT
THE VERY LEAST...WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES...ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. PWATS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH /NEAR 2 INCHES/ SO HEAVY
RAIN REMAINS A THREAT WITH STORMS TONIGHT AS WELL. AS DOES LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF CAM MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF STORMS TONIGHT. THEY
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...WITH THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AROUND 00Z...REACHING THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY THE 06Z-
09Z TIME PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE THE MAIN UPPER LOW THERE
IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST CWA SUNDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH
THE RETURN OF POPS TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. COOL AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE LONG TERM FEATURES A COOL PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOWS A GOOD LOW PRESSURE
AREA/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH
A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THIS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LESSER
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. OTHERWISE...COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST SHOULD KEEP IT MOSTLY DRY ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND STORMS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE LATE TNT BUT THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CORSON-DEWEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







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