Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 010920
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
420 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

RAIN AND THE ODD THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AM
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER OF THESE WEAK WAVES. ONCE THIS WAVE IS
THROUGH...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH NAM PROFILES SHOW A
DEGREE OF WEAK INSTABILITY SO CANT RULE OUT A FEW HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TYPE STORMS IN NEUTRAL FLOW ALOFT. IT MAINLY JUST DEPENDS
ON THE DEGREE OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THE NEXT WAVE...TOPPING THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE NOW...WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS
VERY LIMITED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
MUCAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. NAM
INSTABILITY IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...AND CONFIDENCE IS ALSO REDUCED AS
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
BULLSEYE...NAM WEST...GFS EAST. IT DOESNT HELP THAT THE GEM SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE...SO HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE CWA WITH 50 TO 60 POPS.
EVEN AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...PROFILES REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO CHANGES FROM SUPERBLEND MADE THIS MORNING TO THE EXTENDED.
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING STILL APPLIES. THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURE PROGS LOOK WARMEST SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KMBG AND KABR MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS. AFTER A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AND IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



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