Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 131515 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1015 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WINDS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...TRAILING
A FRONT. GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION...ANTICIPATING
LITTLE MORE THEN A WIND SHIFT WITH THIS FEATURE. IN FACT...BETTER
MIXING IN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE INTO MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MONDAY THAT MOVES
OVERHEAD...BUT THAT ALSO HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL SEE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST AROUND MID
WEEK...WAA REALLY BEGINS TO KICK BACK IN. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL DIG DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD...MAY SEE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE TROUGH EASTWARD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND THEREFORE IS INDICATING A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORIES FOR
THE TIME BEING DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S
WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA POSSIBLY
SEEING 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN



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