Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 072104
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
304 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CHALLENGE REMAINS THE WINDS/SNOW IN THE EAST.  FOR TNT WILL BE
DOWNGRADING THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS WILL BE MET AND THUS SUSTAINED LONG TERM
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SOME HEATING WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN...BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED.  MONDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MO RVR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE GFS/GEM VS THE ECMWF.  SUSPECT SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
PCPN BAND AND THUS IT SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LOCKED UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COLD SFC HIGH BACK
DOORS INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.  HIGHS OVER THE EAST
SHOULD END UP BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS. STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO
MILDER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE (WEST) AND TROUGH (EAST) PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT WILL PLACE THE
CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE REGION SEEING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL AID LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN ANY
FORCING MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA (UNTIL IT DROPS INTO MINNESOTA THIS WEEKEND) WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE WEAK WAVES...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COLDEST
AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THAT LEAVES SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE WARM
AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD AIR TO THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA HAS LED TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING (GUSTS TO 50KTS OVER THE WESTERN TAF
SITES) BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE INITIAL WAVE
OF SNOW IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME
AND HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1-2
MILES IN THE STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KATY DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THAT ENHANCEMENT AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL
LEAD TO VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES NEAR
THE AIRPORT. WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED ON WHETHER THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WOULD IMPACT THE SITE...SO KEPT VISIBILITIES JUST
ABOVE BLIZZARD VALUES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-033>037-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...FLEEGEL
AVIATION...SRF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.