Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280527 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1227 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Issued at 909 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

No tonight period forecast changes planned at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The models were in good agreement with the track of the large upper
level low pressure system moving out of the southwest U.S. and into
the Central Plains through the short term. The models did all show
slightly different solutions on how much rainfall they wanted to
spread into our region through this time period. Best indications
for rainfall later tonight into Wednesday look to be west of the
Missouri River and areas south of Pierre. Northeast SD and west
central MN don`t look favorable for rain. The superblend chances did
not change much from the previous forecast. Otherwise, the setup
tonight and early Tuesday looks favorable for more fog formation
mainly along the James Valley and east. The winds will be light
southeast with high rh along with mostly clear skies. The light rain
chances will leave the southeast CWA Wednesday night. Highs the next
few days should be mostly in the 50s across the CWA along with winds
generally under 15 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The upper level split flow pattern will continue through a better
portion of the long term. The period begins with one storm system
crossing the central plains with another diving southward along the
Rockies. The second system will have some northern stream jet
support with PCPN possible in western portion of the CWA Friday
night through Saturday. Models disagree with pcpn chances early next
week. The Canadian and ECMWF brings pcpn into the region on Monday,
while the GFS keeps pcpn further south. Based on the current weather
pattern, Monday could end up being dry. Temperatures through the
period will remain above normal with highs in the 50s and 60s, with
lows in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR conditions should prevail at all four terminals through the
valid TAF period, except for a couple of hours either side of
sunrise this morning. There could be some short-lived sub-VFR fog
developing or moving into the region. Precipitation potential on
Tuesday appears to stay away from this region for the most part. But
if any terminal in this forecast area were to be impacted by light
rain, it would likely be the KPIR terminal.




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