364
FXUS63 KABR 060302
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1002 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southeasterly winds will remain strong across central South Dakota
  tonight, with gusts in excess of 40 mph. The strong winds will
  translate eastward Monday morning, with gusts to around 50 mph
  across the entire area through Monday evening.

- Strong low pressure will move into the Dakotas late tonight
  through Monday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the
  area. Strong to severe storms are possible late Monday afternoon
  through Monday evening, with the most likely area for severe
  storms along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor.

- The weather pattern will remain unsettled through Thursday with
  periods of showers and thunderstorms. Below average temperatures can
  be expected through at least Friday, with perhaps a warming trend
  next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Updated headlines with no changes of note to both the wind
advisory or the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Upper level ridging currently over the area will exit the region
tonight as a deep trough tracks over the Rockies. This trough will
swing northeastward on Monday, with the main low center reaching
western South Dakota by late afternoon, then the trough will become
more elongated more west to east from Montana to Iowa Monday night.

At the surface, an area of low pressure over Montana/Wyoming will
slowly track eastward tonight, only reaching the far western
Dakotas. May begin to see some precipitation ahead of the low reach
the western CWA late tonight. This low center will remain fairly
well stacked with the upper low as it tracks to northwestern South
Dakota by Monday afternoon, with the boundary from it extending
south to central Nebraska. As the boundary swings northeastward, it
will become the focus for showers and thunderstorms across mainly
the eastern half of the CWA Monday evening. One area of concern,
however will be along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor where
MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg will combine with bulk shear of 40 to
55 knots, so may see a few strong to severe storms late in the
afternoon. After that, instability will be fairly weak due to quite
a bit of expected cloud cover. Shear will still be impressive, so
thunderstorm potential is there, just likely to not see any severe
storms as the line track across the far eastern CWA. May continue to
see some shower activity across mainly northern parts of the area
during the overnight hours as the low remains just to the north of
the CWA.

Winds will also be a concern through much of the near term period. A
tight pressure gradient is now in place across the area, with the
western half of the CWA being the most affected with gusts in excess
of 40 mph. This area will continue to see the strong winds
overnight, then they will spread eastward on Monday, with gusts to
around 50 mph through the daytime hours. A Wind Advisory is
currently in effect across the western half of the CWA. The James
River Valley will see one go into effect early Monday morning, with
the remainder of the area coming into one around midday Monday.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High
temperatures on Monday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows
Monday night will range from the lower to mid 40s along and west of
the Missouri River, o the lower 50s across far northeastern South
Dakota and west central Minnesota.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The long term portion of the forecast will feature periods of pcpn
with a potential warning trend at the end of the work week and
through next weekend.

The period begins on Tuesday with a surface low pressure system over
eastern MT and western MT with perhaps showers and thunderstorms on
ongoing over far northeast SD early Tuesday morning. Additional
showers may impact north central SD throughout Tuesday. However,
some deterministic models are trending drier on Tuesday, while the
NBM is slightly wetter with at least a 25 pop across much of the
CWA. Gusty westerly winds can be expected across the CWA on Tuesday
with the NBM showing a 40 to 95% chance of wind gusts exceeding 40
mph. The surface low pressure and upper level trough should track
east-southeast across the region on Wednesday through Thursday,
bringing a 40 to 60% chance of showers.

An area of low pressure may dive southward across the area on
Friday, bringing the potential for showers. While the latest NBM
shows under 25% chance for pcpn, other guidance, like the grand
ensemble, suggest a 30-35% chance. Warmer temperatures may move into
the area for next weekend with the NBM suggesting highs will reach
the upper 60s and low 70s. However, the 12Z GFS came in much cooler
with highs on the upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions with increasing south southeast winds for
KABR/KATY. Lower (MVFR) CIGS will move in tonight/early Monday
along with shower activity for KPIR/KMBG. That translates east
during the day Monday with the potential for KPIR to see VCTS for
a few hours in the afternoon.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday night for
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Monday night for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday night for
     SDZ006-018.

MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday night for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Connelly