Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 250946
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NE COLORADO WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY...AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COUPLED-JET FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT...OR ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW. WHILE A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED PCPN...MOST OBS HAVE REPORTED -SN. THUS WILL LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF MIXED PCPN IN THE ADVISORY AND GRIDS.

THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTH...OR ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. THE 03Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF
SEEING 4 PLUS INCHES NOW AFFECTS ONLY SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE CURRENT ADVISORY IS LOCATED. THE SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTH LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OR PPP. YESTERDAY THE PPP WAS LOCATED ALONG
HIGHWAY 12 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW THE HIGHEST PPP ALONG HIGHWAY 14...BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY 0Z.

DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT DROPPING TO BELOW TWO TENTH OF
AN INCH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY FLURRIES...AT BEST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY (NEW YEARS EVE)

NO REAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...MAINLY WEST.

FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT THE "WARMEST" DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY IN THE
WEST. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP TO AROUND 20 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BACKED OFF SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT KEEPS THE
TREND OF KEEPING THE EAST MAINLY DRY AND BEST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE MODELS HAVE A STRONG SFC HIGH
(~1054 MB) SLIDING INTO EASTERN MT TUESDAY AND CONTINUES DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SPREADING THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN FOR
AWHILE. HOWEVER...AFTER THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL SOUTH IT APPEARS
WARMER PACIFIC AIR WILL START TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HRS. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT AT ALL WITH HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE UPCOMING SNOW.
CURRENTLY A BAND OF FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER AFFECTING KABR/KMBG. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHEN
ANY HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BEGIN. AT THIS TIME BEST GUESS IS BETWEEN
9Z AND 13Z AT KMBG/KPIR. WHILE IT WILL BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED AT
KMBG...KPIR COULD LIKELY SEE SNOW LINGER MOST OF THE DAY. START
TIMES NEAR KABR/KATY RANGE FROM 9Z TO 16Z. BOTH OF THESE AREAS
WILL ALSO SEE A SHORT LIVED BAND OF SNOW AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KTS. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH AND AFTER THE SNOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 AM
     CST /5 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR BUFFALO-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
     LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







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