Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 031128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FOG IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NE SD WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WITHIN 2 DEGREES AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING IN THIS AREA AND
PERHAPS FOR AREAS FURTHER WEST AS WELL. LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW...
850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULT IS HIGH TEMPERATURES
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE SURFACE...IN THE 90S FOR THE
EASTERN CWA AND AROUND 100 FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WHERE DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ALOFT ARE LESS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THIS AREA. A
CORRIDOR OF MIXING WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
WARMER TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGHS WILL LESSEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY DUE
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH. THE FIRST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY AND THE SECOND 24 HOURS
LATER...BOTH TIMES WILL SEE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. INGREDIENTS NOT LINING UP PARTICULARLY GREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL DOES EXISTS FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED WESTERN
TROUGH NEARS AND A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN TAPERING OFF AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN AND LOOKS TO
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN RETURNS AND DRIES THINGS OUT LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S. THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS
AND LEOLA HILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THIS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE KPIR AND KMBG
TAF FOR NOW.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LUECK
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.