Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 010846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

WHILE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...SOME CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LATER
TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD...STALLING OVER THE CWA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED EAST OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE DRY...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND POPS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG NEAR KATY AS A DISSIPATING FRONT POOLS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD TOWARD MORNING. OTHER
SITES WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN


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