Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 250559 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1259 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 825 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Low clouds along with some showers are expected to move into the
region from the northwest tonight. Adjusted pops and cloud cover
a little.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are finally beginning to move into the CWA
from the south and have been adjusting POPs much of the afternoon to
account for the later start time. It also appears the precip is a
tad further east than forecast, which may very well leave the James
valley dry. Will continue to see this activity slide to the north-
northeast over the next several hours, with still some potential for
a few stronger storms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Focus will then shift to the winds across central/north central SD
later tonight on the back side of the low pressure. Guidance is
showing a surge in winds between 06Z and 09Z tonight as 50 to 55
knot 850mb winds move in, along with cold air advection. BUFKIT
soundings show pretty strong winds not too far off the surface, with
the ability to mix these winds down even in the overnight hours.
Strong and gusty winds look to continue into the day Sunday. Issued
a wind advisory for central SD where it appears the winds will be
strongest. Conditions do not look real favorable for wind advisory
further east.

As far as precipitation, there will likely be some wrap-around light
rain showers moving into the western CWA overnight, with activity
continuing into the morning as everything begins moving east-
northeast. Will have to keep an eye on shower potential on Sunday,
in that the area of POPs may need to be pushed further south.

High pressure will build into the area Monday night, with clear
skies and light winds. Superblend temps looked to warm for an ideal
radiational cooling night, given how the nights are growing longer
and the overall air mass is fairly cool. Sided heavily to the MAV
guidance values which show cooler temps in the upper 30s to low 40s
for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Upper ridging will begin to build into the Plains on Tuesday. With
the ridge in place, the extended will be warmer than average with
highs in the 70s to near 80. Sfc low pressure will move off the
Rockies for the weekend and the upper trough will exit. Models no
longer show a deep upper low during the end of the period. However,
southwest flow aloft with embedded shortwaves and the sfc low will
be enough to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms at the start
of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Mvfr/low vfr stratus clouds will move from west to east across our
region into Sunday afternoon with all locations expected to be
affected. There will also be a few light rain showers moving through
and may affect the airports with not much reduction in visibility.
Along with the clouds and light showers, the surface pressure
gradient tightening up along with caa increasing will result in
strong northwest winds developing through the night into Sunday.
West to northwest winds are expected to increase to 20 to 30 knots
with gusts to 30 to 40 knots through Sunday. The winds will fall off
quickly in the early evening hours under clear skies.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-004-
     009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Dorn



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