Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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966
FXUS63 KABR 260549 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1249 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Increased pops over the Missouri River this evening as showers
have begun to push north into the cwa again. Showers are expected
to fill in across the area as the evening progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Still looks like a fairly wet night for the eastern cwa. Upper low
over the Great Basin will lift northeast tonight, and should in the
process spread showers northeast across much of the cwa along and
east of the Missouri River valley. H3 progs indicate a jet streak
traveling across the region, along with a fair amount of progged H7
omega.  So, have no real problem with sct/likely pops overnight as
available moisture should be sufficient.

It should start to slowly clear off on Tuesday from southwest to
northeast across the cwa, as the upper low tracks away from the
region. Lows tonight should be relatively mild given all the clouds
across the region. Tuesday will be cool with again plenty of clouds
continuing across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The extended period looks to remain dry until the latter half of the
weekend into early next week, when models show a system moving into
the region. With timing and track issues still to be resolved, left
the inherited SuperBlend POPs as is until better model agreement is
reached.

As for temperatures, a cool surface high will be over the area
tomorrow night. Will need to see what cloud cover does, but if
conditions clear out, readings are likely to drop a bit below
SuperBlend. For right now, did drop ABR a few degrees as signs do
point towards eventual clearing. Otherwise, the extended period
features pleasant temperatures with highs generally in the 60s and
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

MVFR/IFR cigs will continue to affect KABR and KATY until Tuesday
afternoon. Vsby may occasionally fall in light rain overnight. KPIR
will improve to VFR overnight and low VFR cigs will break up in KMBG
and KPIR Tuesday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Mohr



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