Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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324 FXUS63 KABR 292328 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation gradually ending today as low clouds erode from west to east. Passing cold front on Tuesday brings another round of showers and thunderstorms. - Additional systems for late Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday though overall less moisture is expected with these systems. - Below to near normal temperatures through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 See updated aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The last band of wraparound showers continues to slowly trek eastward this afternoon. Expect this to slowly exit west central MN by mid evening as the associated low pressure system pushes northeastward into the Great Lakes. The clouds have mostly cleared out of central SD, and temperatures have risen into the 50s. However, promised waa behind the upper low has been slow to move in and may only jump after the peak of daytime heating. Low clouds will clear by late evening from west to east allowing lows to fall into the 30s...low 40s under waa in central SD. More clouds move in by morning as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will bring additional chances for rain...around a quarter inch in the east with more possible in thunderstorms. SPC has kept parts of Deuel and Hamlin counties in a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe storms with the fropa Tuesday. There`s a corridor of strong 45 to 50 kt shear that will set up and clip this forecast area east of I-29. However, instability is lacking and CIN increases through the afternoon as shear decreases. Best time to potentially see some large hail (~1 inch) will be between 2 and 4 pm when CAPE maxes out around 1000 to 1300 J/kg (provided low clouds/fog don`t develop early and stick around) and the best shear is in place. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 An upper level trough will be the dominant weather feature through most of the long term portion of the forecast. The period begins on Wednesday with an upper level trough over the northern Rockies with southwesterly flow aloft over the northern plains. One surface low pressure system crosses the central plains Wednesday night through Thursday night, will bring 30 to 50 percent chance of showers. The grand ensemble show a 20 to 35 percent chance of seeing a quarter inch of QPF across the CWA, with a higher potential southeast of the CWA. The upper level trough slowly crosses the region Thursday night through Friday night, bringing a low chance, under 30 percent, for additional showers. Conditions trend drier for the weekend before another low pressure system and upper level trough impacts the region early next week. However, there are some disagreement among models with the strength and timing of the storm system early next week, with the ECMWF faster, while GEFS is slower and deeper. The differences causes a low forecaster confidence. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG An area of MVFR/VFR cigs over the eastern part of the area will exit to the east by late this evening or early in the overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail tonight. An area of rain will track from west to east across the area late tonight through the mid to late afternoon hours on Tuesday. Periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys will accompany the rain. Once the rain exits, VFR conditions will again prevail late in the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Parkin