Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 062327 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
527 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 304 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

A strong area of low pressure currently over northern Minnesota will
slowly push east of the region through Wednesday. A tight pressure
gradient, along with CAA will create strong northwesterly winds
through at least 3Z. Thus the wind advisory has been extended in
time though 3Z. While snow is beginning to diminish in north central
South Dakota, the fresh snowfall will combine with the winds to
produce blowing snow issues though this evening. Webcams across
north central SD indicate anywhere between whiteout conditions to a
few miles. Expect these conditions will continue beyond 0Z, thus
have extended the winter weather advisory until 3Z. The
northwesterly winds have caused upslope pcpn into the Sisseton
Hills where an additional inch of snow is possible. With the
falling snow and strong winds, the winter weather advisory has
been extended to 6Z. Both winds and light snow should diminish by
then.

Gusty winds are expected once again on Wednesday over much of the
region. While winds will be weaker than today, they still may cause
areas of blowing and drifting snow, especially in NE South Dakota
where winds will be the strongest. Sct snow flurries are also
possible in NE South Dakota which would help promote blowing snow.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Will finally see winds diminish to around 15 kts or less by late
Wednesday night, and continue that way through through at least the
early half of the weekend. The main story for this period will be
the well below normal temperatures. Wind Chill values could fall
into the -15 to -25F range Thursday morning over our western
counties.

While the main 500mb low will be east of Lake Superior by 00Z
Thursday, a broad through will remain over the Great Lakes region
into Friday. This will result in continued northwesterly flow over
the Northern Plains states. While light snow showers will be
possible over our far northeastern counties as another sfc trough
wraps around the exiting low, much of the CWA will be
precipitation free until Friday afternoon. Expect the sfc ridge to
slide across the area Thursday afternoon through Friday morning,
with slight ridging to zonal flow will slide in Friday and Friday
night. An area of light waa snow Friday afternoon, diminishing as
it moves overhead.

The potential for more widespread snow will arrive Saturday, as the
next sfc low pushes into the Central Plains. Timing and location is
still undecided, but snow should quickly expand across the entire
area by late Saturday morning, and exit to our northeast late
Saturday. With a healthy amount of moisture in the DGZ, snow ratios
may be closer to 20:1, with amounts of 1-3 inches likely and
possibly even a couple more inches of snow if the GFS is correct.
The 12Z ECMWF looks to be about 6 hours faster than the GFS with the
onset and ending of the snow with this system. Will continue to
monitor these differences for inclusion in our official fcst, but
went with a general blend for now.

Other than a very small chance of snow clipping our northern
counties Monday, and even less confidence in snow for next Tuesday,
much of the rest of the period should be snow free.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Periods of light snow will continue over portions of the eastern
CWA into the evening hours. Vsbys may fall to MVFR levels with the
snow, including at KATY. Cigs will generally bounce around between
MVFR and VFR level through the TAF period.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening
     for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ007-
     008-011-019>021.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ022-
     023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Parkin



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