Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 151735 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MADE A COUPLE OF
TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ONLY APPRECIABLE WEATHER THIS PERIOD IS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. ON THE
WANE...SHOWERS WILL PASS INTO MINNESOTA BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
1025MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. H85
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A MORE OR LESS CONSISTENT WARMING TREND
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS PEAKING BETWEEN +11 AND +17C
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BEST MIXING CONDITIONS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE
THROUGH ALONG WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE RIDGING RETURNS ON SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY...MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BACK IN BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA.

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WAA WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...AND WILL THEREFORE SEE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD ON THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER
6Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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