Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221557 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1057 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The current forecast for today looks good overall. Made minor
changes to the pop/wx grids based on radar trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Today: This morning most of the area is clear so will keep frost and
fog mention - though neither of those appear to be widespread. A
secondary shortwave is evident in western North Dakota and will be
responsible for steepening low/mid level lapse rates, with some
skinny cape and shallow convection. Mixed winds are also out of the
north with gusts into the low 20s (kts).

Tonight/Tuesday: A broad area of clouds is evident upstream in
southern Canada. As the upper low pinwheels over the western lakes
region, flow aloft will send stratus down into our CWA. NAM BUFKIT
soundings saturate up to around 700mb, but with little lift,
precipitation will be mainly very light or drizzle with very little
QPF. This area of clouds will help insulate us from temperatures
dropping to radically and lows will be around 40F. It will also keep
temperatures from warming much during the day.

Tuesday night: Models show this cloud cover clearing out. As such,
we could experience another morning with temperatures falling into
the 30s and as such have introduced the mention of frost, though
this all depends on the timing, and if clouds linger it will help
restrain temperature falls.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Upper level ridging will be over the region Wednesday night, then
gets pushed eastward on Thursday as low pressure sets up over
central Canada and an associated shortwave trough slowly swings
across the Northern Plains Thursday night through the end of the
period.

At the surface, high pressure will be east of the region when the
period begins, with a trough over the lee of the Rockies. The
trough/boundary will track across the CWA Thursday and Thursday
night, with high pressure settling in on Friday. Low pressure will
intensify over the western high plains Friday night, then tracks
northeastward to the Great Lakes by Monday evening. Will see off and
on periods of rain showers in association with this system. Due to
uncertainties in timing and exact track, will keep pops low for the
time being.

Near to slightly below normal temperatures will be the rule with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will be mainly
in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
today and into this evening. Scattered showers, along with an
isolated thunderstorm or two, are expected through this evening.
Brief periods of MVFR vsbys are possible with the precipitation.
IFR/MVFR cigs will overspread the eastern half of the CWA late
tonight.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin


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