Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 020924
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
424 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MORNING CONVECTION HAS MAINLY BEEN LIMITED TO NORTH DAKOTA...IN LINE
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE JET REORIENTS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/ELEVATED
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ELEVATED CONVECTION AND
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA BY MID DAY.
STRATUS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/IOWA.
THUS...ANTICIPATE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY IN WHAT CONTINUES TO BE A
FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CLEAR CUT HOWEVER
AS WE WILL SEE 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE +8 TO +11C RANGE.
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AS WELL...WITH NEUTRAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LAST...WE ARE UNDER
AN UNFAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT WITH Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.

THAT SAID...HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL DOES DEVELOP
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION AND MODE IS
UP FOR DEBATE RIGHT NOW. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SEVERE AS ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL EXIST WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM
SCALE ROTATION.

WE WILL SEE A 500MB WAVE MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH NO LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN OUT OF CANADA FOR
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
EAST...WE WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE FOR MID DAY
THURSDAY...WITH PROFILES SUGGESTING WE WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED UNDER A
LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DAMPENED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND
PERSISTENT SFC LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT
ON THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
DOWN FROM CANADA WITH LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR. ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DIPPING AN UPPER TROUGH DOWN OVER
THE DAKOTAS BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING.
BY SUN AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AND KEEPS THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING
FURTHER PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST CWA MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S MOST DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL TRACK
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...IMPACTING THE KMBG AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z TO 15Z...AND THE KABR/KATY REGION BETWEEN 15Z
AND 21Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE


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