Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 252321 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
621 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 313 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Forecast challenges in the near term center on precipitation
coverage/timing and amounts.

Currently, under a cloudy sky and breezy southeast winds,
temperatures have climbed anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees today with
readings ranging from the mid 40s across the northeast forecast
zones to the mid 60s across the southwestern forecast zones. Also,
bands of rain and more recently clusters of elevated thunderstorms
are noted marching east-northeastward across the forecast area.

Tonight and Wednesday: the ongoing precipitation event will focus
most of its accumulation across far northeast South Dakota and west
central Minnesota through late this evening before most of the
forcing/lift for appreciable precipitation amounts re-focuses off to
the south and east of this cwa. However, there is still some
potential to see a stratus field develop over some portion of the
cwa overnight and persist into the daytime hours on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be held in check tonight over areas covered by
cloudy skies. If the far western cwa manages to break out of clouds
overnight, ample surface/boundary layer moisture should work to
produce some foggy conditions by morning. Lowest low temperature
readings overnight are right now set in the upper 30s over Corson
county. Further east and south under cloudy skies, 40s for low
temperatures seems more probable. The inverse effect is expected on
Wednesday, where areas under clouds for part/most of the day will
not see much temperature recovery (low to mid 50s at best) while
areas further west are expected to see more sunshine and
temperatures warming into the 60s to perhaps near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Not much change overall in mid and long range guidance with a
generally dry pattern of upper ridging. A pair of systems will pass
overhead, however between the deterministic GFS/ECMWF, neither
system seems to provide much for precipitation potential as best
forcing ends up outside the CWA. They will have more impact on
temperatures and winds however as 850mb temperatures warm to +2
standard deviations above climo late Thursday into early Friday.
With a 10mb pressure gradient across the state, and pressure falls
of 4-6mb/6hrs, surface winds will remain breezy Thursday night.
Despite weakening, a shift from south to southwest and then
northwest will allow for favorable mixing conditions Friday. Cloud
cover may have an impact on the temperature forecast but as it
stands forecast highs/lows Thursday/Friday already appear to be
about 20F above climo. Deterministic models share a general trend in
timing of the thermal advection pattern with Mondays system, so
anticipate there will be another surge in abnormally mild air Sunday
night/Monday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

MVFR cigs this evening will likely lower to areas of IFR cigs
later tonight once the rain/thunder moves east. Areas of fog are
also likely overnight, especially over the western parts of the
region where some clearing cloud occur within light winds and a
moist atmosphere.





LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TDK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.