Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271624 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1024 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY UPDATE WAS TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER AS A NARROW
PATCH OF THIN MID CLOUDS DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO WATCHING AN AREA OF
STRATUS THAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS
MORNING. TODAY WILL BE A RATHER QUIET DAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BREEZES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S WHICH
ARE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT
TERM IS THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER WAVE WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AND MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL BE FIGHTING DRY/COLD
AIR TO THE NORTH AS IT SURGES SOUTHWARD...SO THE
EASTWARD/NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM SHOWING MAINLY ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTHERN CANADA DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE
MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS THEN SHOW
THE WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES SOUTH. THUS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE TEENS ON
WEDNESDAY AND CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY. THE
MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE LONG TERM ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY UNTIL LATE WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ANY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LIFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS AT PIR AND MBG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THIS
MORNING AS MORE MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT MOVES OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
ABR AND ATY MAY ALSO RECEIVE SOME OF THIS STRATUS LATER THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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