000
FXUS63 KABR 151132 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
632 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING E-NE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL RIDE ALONG THE 850 MB
MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH STRETCHES FROM SISSETON...SSW TO PIERRE.
THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF THE HI-RES MODELS OF THE
ARW/NMM SHOWED THIS BAND OF CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...THUS HAVE
ADDED POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL DRYING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE ALONG A MID LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHEN THE PERIOD
STARTS. THE RIDGE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND SETTLE IN OVER THE
PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE THEN GETS DAMPENED AS AN UPPER
LOW TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION REACH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND LOOKS TO KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...WILL TRACK
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO AROUND 5K FEET WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
CIGS AOA 15K FEET OVER THE REGION. BY LATE AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL
CLEAR...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN