Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 211128 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

High pressure will dominate conditions for the majority of the short
term period - or through the weekend as it were. Fog development
thus far has been isolated and shallow with all webcams indicating
good visibility despite the occasional suspect ASOS observation with
visibility dropping to a mile or less. High clouds moving in from the
west will also probably help limit fog development. At this point
will maintain patchy wording in the forecast with no advisories or
dense mention.

Temperatures Friday should be generally around climo. As high
pressure begins to sag southwards, westerly 850mb flow will help to
enhance mixing despite light winds Saturday, and temperatures will
top out about 5 degrees above average. A backdoor front moves into
North Dakota Saturday night, but guidance maintains low level
southerly flow and stalls this feature just north of the border. It
will become a warm front as a lee low forms in eastern
Montana/Wyoming so it should/probably not effect our weather. Sunday
will feature warmest temperatures with 850mb readings increasing +10
to +16C with increasing southerly flow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Not much has changed in the out periods compared to the 12Z model
runs yesterday. Still multiple chances for precipitation throughout
the period. There did not appear to be much in the way of
instability (CAPE progs) through the period, so just kept with rain
showers wording where measurable pops were in the forecast.
Temperatures are going to be chilly, near to below normal through
the period, with the potential for morning low temperatures to dip
to freezing or below a couple of times next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Radiation ground fog (IFR visby) has formed in some areas over
the region this morning, especially in/near river valleys. The fog
should burn off by mid-morning, leaving a mostly sunny (prevailing
VFR) and light wind day.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn



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