Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251718 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1118 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE MORNING UPDATE BACK-PEDDLES ON THE SNOW-NO SNOW LINE...PLACING
ALL OF THE FARTHEST NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ON THE "NO SNOW"
SIDE OF THE FENCE...WITH SNOW ACCUMS INCREASING TOWARD
KATY/KPIR...AND THE HIGHEST ACCUMS ACROSS JONES/LYMAN/BUFFALO
COUNTIES. CURRENT HEADLINE STILL LOOKS FINE. UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NE COLORADO WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY...AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COUPLED-JET FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT...OR ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW. WHILE A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED PCPN...MOST OBS HAVE REPORTED -SN. THUS WILL LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF MIXED PCPN IN THE ADVISORY AND GRIDS.

THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTH...OR ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. THE 03Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF
SEEING 4 PLUS INCHES NOW AFFECTS ONLY SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE CURRENT ADVISORY IS LOCATED. THE SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTH LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OR PPP. YESTERDAY THE PPP WAS LOCATED ALONG
HIGHWAY 12 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW THE HIGHEST PPP ALONG HIGHWAY 14...BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY 0Z.

DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT DROPPING TO BELOW TWO TENTH OF
AN INCH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY FLURRIES...AT BEST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY (NEW YEARS EVE)

NO REAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...MAINLY WEST.

FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT THE "WARMEST" DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY IN THE
WEST. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP TO AROUND 20 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BACKED OFF SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT KEEPS THE
TREND OF KEEPING THE EAST MAINLY DRY AND BEST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE MODELS HAVE A STRONG SFC HIGH
(~1054 MB) SLIDING INTO EASTERN MT TUESDAY AND CONTINUES DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SPREADING THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN FOR
AWHILE. HOWEVER...AFTER THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL SOUTH IT APPEARS
WARMER PACIFIC AIR WILL START TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVF CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AT KPIR AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 NM ARE
POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT AT KATY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
     BUFFALO-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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