Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 281545 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST...AND OVERALL THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET WEATHERWISE. THE ONLY
NOTABLE OBSERVATION THIS MORNING IS SMOKE FROM SASKATCHEWAN FIRES
STREAMING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH STABLE AIR IN
PLACE BEHIND LAST EVENINGS FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SO STILL FORECASTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A BIT BREEZY TODAY AS IDEAL
MIXING CONDITIONS DEVELOP. ON MONDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN
AT 925/850 MB SO WILL LIKELY ADD A FEW DEGREES ON TO TODAYS HIGHS
WHICH WILL PUT MANY AREAS AROUND 90 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA.
WILL BE WATCHING A SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AT THIS POINT IT WOULD APPEAR CHANCES WILL
ONLY BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA AND WILL HAVE TO AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF TUESDAY NIGHT FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE THE CWA SITS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
DIFFERENCE THIS GO ROUND IS THAT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE INTRODUCING A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE WHEREBY
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE REALLY GETS KNOCKED DOWN BY LONGWAVE
TROFFING AND SOME STRONGER POLAR WESTERLIES. THE 00Z GFS SEEMED TO
SHOW SOMETHING SIMILAR BY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
PRONOUNCED AS THE ECMWF`S VERSION OF THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. IF THE
ECMWF ENDS UP BEING ANYWHERE CLOSE TO RIGHT...THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 4TH OF JULY NIGHT.

PROBABLY THE TOUGHEST TEMPERATURE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE OUT PERIODS
IS WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD SHOWING UP IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECWMF WITH 925HPA THERMAL PROGS IN THE TEENS CELSIUS AT PEAK HEATING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA WHILE SAID THERMAL PROGS ARE
PUSHING 30 CELSIUS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. LOW
CONFIDENCE/LOW SKILL FORECAST THERE FOR TEMPERATURE FOR SURE RIGHT
NOW FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE PERIOD APPEARS TO
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL 925HPA THERMAL PROGS SOMEWHERE IN THE 20S CELSIUS
RANGE...FOR THE MOST PART. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROGS ARE FOR
THE MOMENT IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME TOASTY WARM TEMPS POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP FOR THE 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.