Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261540 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1040 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH SUPPLYING DRY COOL AIR TO THE
REGION. ALOFT...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE EXPECTED ABOVE
THE FREEZING LEVEL TO MOVE FROM WEST RIVER INTO NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ONLY WEAK CONVECTION STRAGGLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. WE WILL SEE SOME MILDER AIR INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
IN THE OUT PERIODS...THERE REALLY ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF TIMES WHEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOW UP. MOST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE DRY.
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY
FLATTER /MORE ZONAL/ WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO TRACK
ENEWD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE UNDERGOING A STEADY
WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL...BEFORE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND FROPA PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP CHANCES
ATTACHED TO IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT
KPIR/KMBG BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. THERE IS ALSO A
SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY
IMPACTING KPIR AND KMBG WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS ELEVATED RAIN
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY EVEN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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