Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 260535 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1235 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

STUBBORN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS HUNG IN ALL DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FORECAST HIGHS.
ALTHOUGH...SUN WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE JAMES VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS CLEARING LINE ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. MAY STILL
REALIZE HIGHS YET IN THE JAMES VALLEY WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
HEATING STILL LEFT.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS WEAK 700MB WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. NO REAL LOW LEVEL JET TO SPEAK OF IN THIS CASE. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH IN BRINGING DECENT LIFT WITH THE
700 MB WAVE ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. VARIOUS CAM
SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING SCT ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN SD OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER BREEZY...ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LOOKS TO BE SUB ADVISORY
LEVELS THOUGH AT THIS POINT. STILL WATCHING THE COOL AIR MASS
COMING DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE DAKOTAS. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AS IT STILL APPEARS THE EASTERN CWA MAY BE STUCK IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S THANKS TO THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
FEATURE A WESTERN RIDGE AND AN EASTERN TROUGH...WITH
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE PLAINS STATES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL THEN SEE
JUST A BIT OF A REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. IFR/MVFR FOG WILL AFFECT KATY/KABR
OVERNIGHT OCCASIONALLY BEFORE CLEARING BY 14Z. SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAY
IMPACT KPIR UNTIL AROUND 10Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND BECOME BREEZY AT ALL LOCATIONS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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