Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 292036
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOMETHING SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.