Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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983
FXUS63 KABR 281740 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1028 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Fog and stratus deck between Mobridge and Aberdeen this morning
lifting to the north and dissipating. Otherwise, temperatures have
already warmed into the 70s and are well on their way to the mid
80s to mid 90s by late afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
Increased winds a little through the rest of the day to breezy.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The sfc low across Saskatchewan this morning will be impacting our
weather in one way or another through Monday afternoon. First, the
warm front surging north of our area this morning will put us in the
warm sector, then the cold front will sink across the cwa Sunday
night before finally exiting to our southeast by 00Z Tuesday. A line
of strong showers/thunderstorms continues to track northeast at
around 25kts on the WAA. Hail remain the main threat with these
storms, with radar estimated storm total rainfall around an inch
under the stronger storms.

Otherwise for today...hot and dry conditions will be the theme for
this afternoon, with temperatures running about 10F above normal for
this time of year. This means highs in the mid to upper 90s west of
ABR, and in the upper 80s east. With all this heat, and dewpoints in
the upper 40s to low 50s west river, RH values will be in the 20s
with a few far west areas flirting with the upper teens. On a
positive note fire weather wise, winds should remain less than 20mph
in that area, even with strong afternoon mixing up over 700mb.

While convection will be possible over western MN and much of
eastern-southeastern SD Monday evening with the passage of the cold
front, will not go quite as high/specific with the 00Z GFS. Could
see the need for pops to be increased above the slight chance
category as the time nears. Drier high pressure will then work in
late Monday night through Tuesday with temps returning to the 80s
cwa wide in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

A ridge aloft will remain over the Plains through Friday. Then
the flow will shift to the southwest ahead of a trough. Temperatures
in the 80s and lower 90s through Saturday will fall to around 80 on
Sunday.

LLJ activity will increase ahead of a lee side sfc low Thursday
night. After a mostly dry start to the extended, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase at the end of the work week. The
low will move off the Rockies and through the Dakotas late Friday
and Saturday. Then, shortwave activity will increase as the ridge
exits and the trough begins to move in. This activity will keep
precip in the forecast through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF forecast
period. Low level wind shear is expected to affect KABR and KATY
during the overnight hours and have inserted this into TAFs.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/Mohr
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...TMT



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