Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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401
FXUS63 KABR 220225 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
825 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 808 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

There are thunderstorms rolling across the northern plains this
evening. The cause appears to be a combination of lift within the
left front entrance region of a 110 knot upper level jet with
steep mid-level lapse rates, as much as 500j/kg mucape and over 55
knots of deep layer effective bulk shear. One of these convective
blobs generated a 55 mph gust in Corson County. Updated the
forecast to expand pops overnight and introduce thunder mention.
No changes planned to low temperatures at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 347 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

A couple short wave troughs moving over the region along with a
surface cold front dropping south on Wednesday will bring an
increase in clouds along with some chances of light
rain/sprinkles later tonight and Wednesday. Made only some small
adjustments to pops through Wednesday afternoon. It will be a mild
night across the region with lows in the mid 30s to the lower
40s. Wednesday will remain above normal as the caa kicks in. Mid
40s to mid 50s still are expected across the region as winds
become northwest and increase.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Main issue in the extended continues to be the storm system which
will slide east across the Plains Thursday through Friday. Latest
round of model guidance continues to keep the brunt of the system
south of the area, with the highest snow accums across the southern
third of SD and into northern NE and over IA. Although, this storm
does appear to be far enough north to give southern parts of the CWA
at least some light snow accums. Will continue to monitor model
trends for any northward push. There will be some gusty winds with
this system, so any snow that falls over southern areas may be blown
around and reduce visibility at times.

After that system departs, things look mostly dry through the
weekend, but will be watching some weak shortwave energy dropping
southeast through the region on Sunday. This could bring a batch of
light snow through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Regional radar mosaic indicates that there are some weak showers
and even a few thunderstorms around this afternoon, mainly across
western into central North Dakota. A bit closer to home, there are
a few showers/weak thunderstorms moving through western into
central South Dakota as well. And, the latest iteration of short-
range convection allowing models all hint at very sporadic light
shower-type activity persisting off and on throughout the region
tonight. Clear skies right now will gradually become increasingly
cloudy overnight, but VFR flying weather is expected through at
least mid-day on Wednesday before sub-vfr cold air stratus clouds
move in from the north.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Dorn



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