Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 220524 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CROSSING WESTERN
WYOMING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK MU-CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS AGREE WELL WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY OF HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS. THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PWATS DROPPING
FROM OVER AN INCH...TO UNDER A HALF INCH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PATTERN UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER THE
RIDGE..ESPECIALLY COUPLED WITH GOOD MIXING AT THE SFC DUE TO THE
SFC LOW. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR +20C ON SUNDAY MORNING
HIGHS AT THE SFC WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE IN
ON MONDAY...THOUGH LATEST RUNS ARE ALL LEANING TOWARD THE DRY
SIDE. STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW DUE TO RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY. EITHER WAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND AVERAGE..IN THE 50S..WITH AND BEHIND
THE UPPER TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE TERMINALS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.