Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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360
FXUS63 KABR 052048
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
248 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

The main forecast challenge today through Tuesday is placement of
snow with embedded heavier precip.

An area of sfc low pressure continues to track across the region
this afternoon. An upper trough will dig in to the Plains tonight,
bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. Temperatures will plummet
into the single digits and teens tonight and not rise much through
the end of the work week. As the cold air advects in, wind gusts
will remain elevated into Wednesday. The initial push with the cold
front today will keep winds in advisory criteria, with gusts to 50
mph across the central part of the state until this evening. These
winds will combine with any falling snow to create reduced
visibilities of a mile or less. As temps fall behind the front,
blowing snow will still continue across north central SD.

A more intense, northern area of snow is affecting Corson, Dewey,
Walworth, and Campbell counties this afternoon. Brief blizzard
conditions have been reported and are possible with heavier areas of
snow. There is now a southern lobe of snow that is pushing east
toward Stanley and Jones counties. With temps right at or above
freezing, blowing snow will only be a concern while snow falls.
However, the big question is how far east this lobe will travel.
Latest guidance is barely picking it up and the few models that have
it dissipate it by 00z. So, added in some pops across the south
until 00z for now.

The system will tighten up tonight over ND and MN. This will result
in wrap around snow/snow showers from the James Valley eastward on
Tuesday. May need to consider blowing snow concerns carefully for
eastern SD on Tuesday as winds will be gusting to 30 to 40 mph. Had
to do some manual blowing snow additions today since the blowing
snow model was not handling the low qpf/high pop situation well.

Snow showers and flurries will linger across the eastern cwa through
Wed night.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

The period begins with an abnormally strong surface high pressure
building into the region from the northwest. This high will bring
decreasing winds along with cold temperatures to the region on
Thursday and Thursday night. WAA will develop Friday night with
perhaps some light snowfall over the region. Models lack agreement
with the placement of the WAA thus will maintain schc to low end chc
pops Friday night through Saturday. Models diverge with their
handling of a potential snow storm by Saturday evening. While the
ECMWF and GFS both show a storm affecting the CWA, they differ by
about 12 hours. Thus will maintain forecast builder pops.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

An area of low pressure crossing the region will bring light snow
to the terminals of KMBG and KPIR. The combination of falling snow
and increasing northwesterly winds will reduce visibilities. While
KABR and KATY will see increasing winds later this evening, snow
and blowing snow is a little more unclear. Gusty northwesterly
winds will continue through Tuesday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening
     for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-034.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ005-
     010-017-033-035-036-045-048.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD



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