Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 011718
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1218 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BASED ON MOST
RECENT HRRR RUNS AND 12Z DATA COMING IN...IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY
THAT ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON....ALTHOUGH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO FAVOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN SD AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL SD BY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL FORM IN VICINITY OF WEAK SFC LOW AND SFC BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN SD. CURRENT HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK AND LITTLE CHANGES
NEEDED THERE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME WEAK
ENERGY RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT
BOUNDARY AROUND. THEREFORE...WILL ONCE AGAIN JUST SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS.

WITH NO REAL UPPER SUPPORT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...THEN WILL REINTRODUCE SMALL POPS TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH DRY AS THE WAVE TRACKS AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE EAST...AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS
ENERGY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE AND FLATTENS IT. THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE LONG
TERM...HOWEVER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MORE CONSOLIDATED LOOKING ENERGY WILL
BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION. THUS POPS ARE HIGHEST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE TIME WILL FEATURE HIT AND MISS RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY START OUT NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...THEN TREND TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY AROUND KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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